Luxury Pulls Along The Market...Don't Be Fooled.

 

The Market Is Not One Market

If you only look at the total market numbers you can miss what is actually happening on the ground. This is why sellers and buyers in different price points can feel like they are living in completely different markets.

This chart from the Cromford Report shows the change in annual average price per square foot by list price range as of January 1 2026. It is a clean snapshot of market bifurcation.

What the chart is really saying

Under 700k the market is soft.

Under 300k is down 2.3%
300k to 350k is down 2.2%
350k to 400k is down 2.1%
400k to 450k is down 0.7%
450k to 500k is down 0.6%
500k to 600k is down 0.5%
600k to 700k is down 0.8%

Above 700k the market is mostly up.

700k to 800k is up 0.5%
800k to 1m is up 0.1%
1m to 1.5m is up 0.6%
1.5m to 2m is up 1.7%
2m to 3m is up 0.7%
3m to 5m is up 1.2%

Then you get to the top end where the numbers can move fast because there are fewer sales.

5m to 7.5m is down 1.1%
7.5m to 10m is up 5.2%
Over 10m is up 7.9%

Why total market stats mislead people

The total market is heavily influenced by where the dollar volume is. Luxury sales carry more weight. A few strong months at the top can make the overall average look healthier than it feels to the typical seller under 700k.

So you get headlines that sound like the market is holding steady or improving. Meanwhile a seller at 450k is dealing with real price pressure and more negotiation. Both things can be true at the same time.

The luxury sector is propping up the headlines

The story above 7.5m is the loudest part of this chart. It is also the least relatable part of the market for most buyers and sellers. Those buyers are not shopping based on monthly payment stress. They are often responding to asset cycles like stocks and crypto and general risk appetite. That demand does not tell you much about what a family buying their first home is dealing with.

Also at that level one or two sales can swing the annual average. Small sample size equals bigger moves.

The practical takeaway for buyers under 700k

Prices are softer in the entry to mid range. Per the Cromford commentary this is also happening alongside rising median family incomes and lower mortgage rates versus a year ago. Put those together and affordability is improving. Not dramatically. But enough to matter.

If you are a fence sitting buyer in that range this is the logic for getting serious. Not because the market is crashing. Because the math is less punishing than it was 12 months ago.

The practical takeaway for sellers under 700k

Do not price off the total market headlines. Price off your micro market. Your zip code. Your subdivision. Your comp set. Your active competition today. If you are under 700k you are more likely to win with clean condition and sharp pricing from day one than you are with a test the market strategy.

How to tell the story the right way

The only story that matters is supply versus demand by price range and location.

Supply signals to watch
Active listings trend
New listings trend

Demand signals to watch
Pending listings trend
Sold listings trend

Christmas Market Update

The last few weeks have continued to tilt hard toward sellers. Demand is picking up across most segments while inventory keeps shrinking.

Just like last week green circles are overwhelming red ones by a 15 to 3 margin. The average CMI change over the past month is now up 10.1 percent. That is a noticeable jump from 8.6 percent last week.

The strongest shifts toward sellers are in Peoria Gilbert Queen Creek Tempe Goodyear Fountain Hills Chandler Cave Creek Phoenix and Glendale. The only three cities not showing a clear monthly move toward sellers are Paradise Valley Surprise and Avondale and even there the improvement for buyers is minimal.

We now have nine cities solidly in seller territory including the three largest markets Phoenix Scottsdale and Mesa. That puts half of our 18 major cities in seller markets. The rest break down into three balanced and six still favoring buyers.

Only six large cities remain below a CMI of 100. Overall this picture is far more seller-friendly than we expected just a month ago.

Some improvement for sellers...as normal this time of year.

Over the last week the market has shifted hard in favor of sellers. Demand is up, supply is dropping faster than it normally does this time of year, and the numbers show it. We’re sitting at 15 green cities and only 3 red, with Scottsdale and San Tan Valley both flipping from red to green since last week.

CMI movement is accelerating too. The average change over the last month is +6.4 percent, up from +3.6 percent just a week ago.

Fountain Hills and Chandler are still leading for sellers, but Queen Creek, Peoria, Maricopa and Tempe all jumped more than 10 percent. On the flip side, Paradise Valley still favors buyers over the past month, but even PV improved for sellers when you only look at the last seven days. The other buyer-leaning cities softened only slightly, at three percent or less. Avondale also reversed course this week, and Surprise is now the only city still trending toward buyers.

The biggest positive sign this week: even the three weakest cities are now moving solidly toward sellers.

Right now the breakdown sits at 8 seller’s markets, 4 balanced markets, and 6 buyer’s markets.

Market just can't quite figure it out....everyone guessing at this point.

Here’s the latest Cromford Market Index update for single family homes across the 18 biggest Valley cities.

We’re really seeing two types of buyers right now. The first group is waiting for interest rates to drop, holding off in hopes that affordability improves. The second group has accepted that rates are what they are and that it’s still better than renting. They’ve realized that waiting around is no longer a smart financial move since there’s no clear sign that rates will come down anytime soon.

Right now 15 cities have shifted more in favor of buyers this month while just 3, Tempe, Gilbert, and Mesa, are leaning more toward sellers. Cave Creek and Avondale saw the biggest improvement for buyers, but for most cities the change was pretty small at around 6 percent or less.

Overall the average CMI dropped 2.8 percent this week compared to 1.1 percent last week, and that downward trend will likely keep going until mid November. At the moment there are 5 cities sitting in seller’s markets, 6 balanced, and 7 in buyer’s markets.

What’s driving it
Supply continues to climb. Demand is technically improving too, but very slowly. If things follow the usual seasonal pattern, inventory should hit its high point around mid November, which means sellers could see about six weeks of less competition before the holidays.

Demand is trickier to predict. It’s not just financial, it’s emotional too. Right now overall demand is about 20 percent below normal, but it could shift either way depending on how buyers feel about rates and affordability.

Interesting Shift Most People Missed, It Matters...Scottsdale Surpasses Phoenix in Real Estate Volume

🏠 The Great Divide: Scottsdale Surpasses Phoenix for the First Time

It’s getting harder to ignore — the gap between the top and everyone else keeps stretching. The people at the upper end of the market aren’t just doing better; they’re playing an entirely different game.

Real estate makes that divide easy to see. And right now, Scottsdale just passed Phoenix in total housing dollar volume for the first time ever. That’s not a small shift — it’s a signal of how wealth is clustering more tightly than ever.

---

📊 Scottsdale Takes the Lead

Based on all closed listings in 2025 to date, Scottsdale is now larger than Phoenix in ARMLS dollar volume. This has never happened before.

Even though fewer than half as many homes have sold in Scottsdale, they are more than twice as expensive on average. The total dollar volume is $6,324,167,934 for Scottsdale, compared to $5,873,605,304 for Phoenix.

That means Scottsdale’s home market is now 8% bigger than Phoenix, as measured by ARMLS closings.

To put that in perspective:

• In 2024, Phoenix had a 1% advantage.

• In 2023, the margin in favor of Phoenix was 4%.

• In 2022, Phoenix led by 19%.

Before that, Scottsdale wasn’t even close enough to measure.

---

💰 Paradise Valley Joins the Surge

Paradise Valley has shared in that boom. So far in 2025, it has delivered $1,382,350,946 in closed listings — placing it in 5th place above Chandler.

Only Mesa, Gilbert, Scottsdale, and Phoenix generated more volume.

That’s despite PV having just 332 closings, roughly the same as Coolidge or Arizona City.

This is a new development. In 2024, PV ranked 8th and had less dollar volume than Chandler, Surprise, and Peoria.

Now it’s up a staggering 30% year-over-year.

---

🧭 What It All Means

It’s not just about expensive homes. It’s about a market pulling away from itself. Luxury buyers operate in a different lane — focusing almost exclusively on Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, with maybe a glance at Fountain Hills, Carefree, Cave Creek, and Phoenix’s Arcadia and Biltmore districts.

There may be luxury properties elsewhere, but out-of-state buyers rarely find them because they aren’t looking beyond the Northeast Valley. That focus alone has now made Phoenix no longer the largest housing market in Arizona, at least by dollar volume.

---

📈 The Bigger Picture

This all mirrors what’s happening in the stock market.
Companies tied to AI are skyrocketing in valuation — far beyond any normal measure of profitability. Nvidia’s market cap now exceeds the GDP of Japan.

It’s the same pattern in a different language: concentration at the top, growth detached from fundamentals, and widening distance between winners and everyone else.

---

⚠️ The Takeaway

We’ve been talking about this for a while — the separation isn’t slowing down, and it’s almost irrelevant where the broader market goes next. Whether prices rise, flatten, or fall, the top end keeps breaking away.

And while we can’t predict exactly when or how the correction comes, history reminds us: reversion to the mean is real.

Market update...still unseasonably positive for sellers.

Although we are still seeing movement favorable to sellers, it is starting to decelerate. This occurred last week and we have seen it again this week. The average monthly change in CMI is 7.6% which is a little less strong than the 8.4% we saw last week. Demand is growing nicely, but a lot of sellers are also putting homes back on the market from listings that were cancelled during the summer months. The pace of arrival of new listings is higher than in both the last 2 years.

14 cities improved for sellers with 3 improving for buyers. Paradise Valley, Glendale and Maricopa did the latter with Tempe turning around. The front-runners are Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Peoria, Gilbert, Avondale and Surprise. Paradise Valley is falling back quickly as supply comes back online and is in danger of being overtaken by Fountain Hills at the top of the table. Scottsdale with a 22% jump now about the 120 mark puts it back into a "sellers" market technically.  Although like most areas if you are outdated or to aggressive in your pricing it certainly won't feel like it.

We have 7 cities that are seller's markets, with Gilbert joining that group. 3 are balanced and 7 are still buyer's markets. Peoria looks like it will leave that group and become a balanced market within a day or two.

It is mostly the more affordable areas that are the most favorable to buyers, but Avondale is a notable exception to that rule. Its supply is far more limited than Buckeye or Maricopa, for example.

Inventory Falling An Unpredicted Help for Sellers

 

Market Pulse: What the Cromford® Report is Really Telling Us

Take a look at the latest Cromford® Market Index values for the Valley’s 17 largest single-family markets:

The story that began five weeks ago is still gaining momentum. Supply keeps dropping, demand is nudging upward, and the average monthly change in CMI has jumped to 9.3%, an improvement over last week’s 8.4%. Fourteen of the 17 cities strengthened for sellers, while only Maricopa and Tempe tilted toward buyers, with Glendale staying flat.

High-end markets are clearly flexing their muscle. Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Scottsdale are moving faster than Paradise Valley in percentage growth, but PV still sits in its own league. Meanwhile, more affordable cities like Avondale, Peoria, and Gilbert are up over 10%, making them standouts for buyers looking for leverage.

Source: Cromford Report®

---

Why Headlines Don’t Tell the Story

It’s tempting to look at all those green arrows and declare, “We’re back in a seller’s market!” But that’s not the whole picture. Our job as real estate professionals isn’t to echo headlines, it’s to dig deeper. Clients count on us to interpret what’s really happening so they can make confident decisions—and that’s what sets us apart from the broad brush commentary out there.

---

The 7 Key Metrics That Matter

To move past surface-level market chatter, I lean on seven key metrics:

1. Supply (Accrued vs. New Listings) – How much inventory is truly building vs. how much is fresh to the market.

2. Demand (Closings vs. Listings Under Contract) – Tells us whether buyer action is actually following through.

3. Listing Success Rate – The percentage of homes that actually sell in a given price range or neighborhood.

4. Months Supply – Less than 4 months = seller’s market, 4–6 = balanced, more than 6 = buyer’s market. Luxury markets often run higher due to smaller buyer pools.

5. Price Trends – Are prices climbing, leveling, or softening?

6. List-to-Sales Price Ratio – How much discounting sellers are conceding to close deals.

7. Market Segment Idiosyncrasies – Seasonal factors, price-point nuances, and neighborhood-level quirks.

---

A Closer Look at Paradise Valley

Since PV sits at the top of the stack, let’s break it down. Using FlexMLS Market Trends Graphs (criteria: PV; SFD; YTD; all status):

• Active Listings vs. New Listings: 106 active, 21 new.

• Sold vs. Pending: 28 sold, 12 pending.

• Price Trends: Year-to-date, prices have risen, but recently leveled off. The average sales are drifting from the $5–6M range down into the mid-$3–4M range, while the average active list price is holding near $7M.

• List-to-Sales Price Ratio: Sellers are conceding more, confirming some softening beneath the surface of what looks like a “hot” market.

---

Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

The devil is in the details. It’s not enough to say “Paradise Valley is a seller’s market” without also noting that prices are leveling and sellers are discounting more at closing. That’s the nuance your agent needs to bring to the table.

For sellers: yes, demand is holding, but pricing correctly is critical when average sales are sliding below list prices.
For buyers: leverage exists, especially if you’re shopping above $5M, where seller flexibility is more evident.

And across the Valley, the split between high-end and low-to-mid markets is widening. Luxury is strong for sellers, but many mid-tier markets are still buyer-friendly.

Looking Ahead

As we move into fall, it will be fascinating to watch how supply and demand dance together. The Cromford® Report notes that demand is gently rising while new inventory slows, a dynamic that always shifts balance in favor of sellers—at least on the surface.

Our job is to keep cutting through the noise and bringing clarity to the submarkets where our clients are actually buying and selling.