How many investors bought in your city???

To round out our little series (from Cromford Daily Observations) on how much, when, what and where investor residential purchases were made there is this somewhat interesting tally. Now when the trivia question is asked, 'what percentage of the total investor revenue went into Scottsdale home purchases this past year,' you can just say 10.5% and be brilliant:)

December 20 - Based on the Affidavits of Value filed in Maricopa County for 2013 up to the end of November, the percentage of home sales revenue that was fuel by investor purchases were as follows:

1. Youngtown 44.8%
2. El Mirage 35.7%
3. Avondale 30.0%
4. Laveen 28.1%
5. Glendale 22.9%
6. Tempe 21.6%
7. Tolleson 21.1%
8. Phoenix 20.0%
9. Apache Junction 18.7%
10. Surprise 17.4%
11. Mesa 14.9%
12. Chandler 13.5%
13. Gilbert 13.3%
14. Peoria 12.9%
15. Litchfield Park 12.6%
16. Gila Bend 10.7%
17. Sun City 10.7%
18. Scottsdale 10.5%
19. Buckeye 10.5%
20. Goodyear 10.3%
21. Paradise Valley 9.8%
22. Carefree 8.9%
23. Fountain Hills 7.6%
24. Tonopah 7.3%
25. Wickenburg 7.3%
26. Cave Creek 6.4%
27. Waddell 6.3%
28. Queen Creek 6.3%
29. Sun City West 5.3%
30. New River 4.7%
31. Rio Verde 4.5%
32. Morristown 3.4%
33. Wittmann 1.2%

Given that investors tend to focus on cheaper homes these percentages of revenue are lower than if we looked at the percentage of unit sales. A normal guideline would be about 10% so the top twenty cities in this list saw more revenue coming from investors than normal. The percentages in the top four cities were abnormally high. If we are to see investors reduce their inventory at some point these cities are where it will have the most effect. Institutional investors represent only about 5% of the rental inventory. Most of the investment properties belong to "mom & pop" small scale investors.

Quick Pre-Christmas Update...

December 12 - The overall Cromford® Market Index is not moving a great deal but is down slightly over the last week. When we look at individual cities and their single family markets, there is a wide range of changes from Avondale (most improved) to Surprise (most deteriorating).

• Avondale has started recovery - up from 93.2 to 95.0 - 99.7 last month. Demand is stable but supply is falling.
• Tempe is improving from a seller's point of view - up from 81.3 to 82.8 over the last week and is now well above the 75.2 we saw last month. Demand is stable and supply is falling.
• Chandler is gaining ground from a seller's perspective - up from 105.6 to 106.8 over the last week - 105.8 last month. Demand has weakened a little, but supply is falling quite quickly now.
• Scottsdale is up very slightly from 100.5 to 100.7 over the last week - 101.4 last month. Demand is flat and supply has declined very slightly.
• Mesa is stable - up very slightly from 97.1 to 97.2 over the last week - 97.6 last month. Demand is flat and supply shows just a hint of falling.
• Peoria has fallen back again - down slightly from 91.2 to 91.0 over the last week - 92.8 last month. Demand has weakened a little, and supply is slightly higher.
• Glendale's is declining again - down from 107.2 to 106.4 over the last week - 106.2 last month. Demand has dropped while supply is stable.
• Queen Creek is still deteriorating slowly - down from 58.8 to 57.6 over the last week - 63.9 last month. Demand has weakened slightly and supply is still growing.
• Phoenix is weakening - down from 92.2 to 90.9 over the last week - 98.75last month. Demand has resumed falling but supply is stable.
• Goodyear is weaker again - down from 82.6 to 81.1 over the last week - 92.7 last month. Demand is down and and supply is increasing.
• Gilbert is a true buyer's market - down from 84.6 to 82.2 over the last week - 93.3 last month. Demand is still dropping and supply continues to grow slowly.
• Surprise is deteriorating further - down from 73.3 to 70.8 over the last week - 83.9 last month. Demand is weaker and supply is still growing fast.

December 11 - Active luxury single family listings (over $500,000) are becoming far more numerous in a number of areas, but not all. Here are some areas with significant increases in actives (excluding UCB):

• Anthem 85086 - 69 versus 34 last year
• Mesa 85207 - 78 versus 38 last year
• Sun Lakes 85248 - 39 versus 19 last year
• Chandler 85249 - 50 versus 34 last year
• Phoenix 85254 - 73 versus 32 last year
• Scottsdale 85259 - 189 versus 138 last year
• Scottsdale 85260 - 93 versus 64 last year
• Fountain Hills - 144 versus 101 last year
• Cave Creek 85331 - 148 versus 84 last year
• Peoria 85383 - 81 versus 32 last year

These are the only areas with a fall:

• Phoenix 85016 - 45 versus 56
• Phoenix 85050 - 20 versus 21
• Chandler 85226 - 5 versus 9

Although the luxury market has been helped by the advances in the stock market and greater availability of jumbo loans, the additional inventory is likely to limit appreciation over the coming months.