Monday, April 13, 2015

Interesting Quick Stats - Real Estate Update...

When we examine the Affidavits of Value for March 2015 in Maricopa County we see the following changes from March 2014:
  • Sales to owner occupiers are up 23% over last year
  • Sales to investors are down 13%
  • Sales to second-home owners are up 9%
  • Sales of new homes are up 8%
  • Sales of new homes to owner occupiers are up 10%
  • Sales of new homes to investors are down 48%
  • Sales of existing homes are up 18%
  • Sales of existing homes to owner occupiers are up 25%
  • Sales of existing homes to investors are down 12%
  • Sales of existing homes to primary residence owner occupiers are up 26%
Clearly primary residence owner occupiers buying existing homes are the number one source of additional demand.

Investors are back down to only 12% of the market.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

5 Big Myths About What Millennials Truly Want

We've heard a ton about millennials—where they want to live, what they love to eat, what's most important to them in the workplace, and so on. It's time to set the record straight.

In some ways, it’s foolish to make broad generalizations about any generation, each of which numbers into the tens of millions of people. Nonetheless, demographers, marketers, and we in real estate can’t help but want to draw conclusions about their motivations and desires. That’s especially true when it comes to the young people who conveniently came of age with the Internet and smartphones, making it possible for their preferences and personal data to be tracked from birth.

Naturally, everyone focuses on what makes each generation different. Sometimes those differences, however slight, come to be viewed as hugely significant breaks from the past when in fact they’re pretty minor. There’s a tendency to oversimplify and paint with an exceptionally broad brush for the sake of catchy headlines and easily digestible info nuggets. (Again, we’re as guilty of this as anyone, admittedly.) The result is that widely accepted truisms are actually myths—or at least only tell part of the story. Upon closer inspection, there’s good reason to call these five generalizations about millennials into question.

1. Millennials Don’t Like Fast Food

 One of the most accepted truisms about millennials—easily the most over examined generation in history—is that they are foodies who love going out to eat. And when they eat, they want it to be special, with fresh, high-quality ingredients that can be mixed and matched according to their whims, not some stale, processed cookie-cutter package served to the masses.

In other words, millennials are huge fans of Chipotle and fast-casual restaurants, while they wouldn’t be caught dead in McDonald’s. In fact, the disdain of millennials for McDonald’s is frequently noted as a prime reason the fast food giant has struggled mightily of late.

But guess what? Even though survey data shows that millennials prefer fast-casual over fast food, and even though some stats indicate millennial visits to fast food establishments are falling, younger consumers are far more likely to dine at McDonald’s than at Chipotle, Panera Bread, and other fast-casual restaurants.

Last summer, a Wall Street Journal article pointed out that millennials are increasingly turning away from McDonald’s in favor of fast casual. Yet a chart in the story shows that roughly 75% of millennials said they go to McDonald’s at least once a month, while only 20% to 25% of millennials visit a fast-casual restaurant of any kind that frequently. Similarly, data collected by Morgan Stanley cited in a recent Business Insider post shows that millennials not only eat at McDonald’s more than at any other restaurant chain, but that they’re just as likely to go to McDonald’s as Gen Xers and more likely to dine there than Boomers.

At the same time, McDonald’s was the restaurant brand that millennials would least likely recommend publicly to others, with Burger King, Taco Bell, KFC, and Jack in the Box also coming in toward the bottom in the spectrum of what millennials find worthy of their endorsements. What it looks like, then, is that millennials are fast food regulars, but they’re ashamed about it.

2. Millennials Want to Live in Cities, Not Suburbs

 Another broad generalization about millennials is that they prefer urban settings, where they can walk or take the bus, subway, or Uber virtually anywhere they need to go. There are some facts to back this up. According to an October 2014 White House report, millennials were the most likely group to move into mid-size cities, and the number of young people living in such cities was 5% higher compared with 30 years prior. The apparent preference for cities has been pointed to as a reason why Costco isn’t big with millennials, who seem to not live close enough to the warehouse retailer’s suburban locations to justify a membership, nor do their apartments have space for Costco’s bulk-size purchases. 

But just because the percentage of young people living in cities has been inching up doesn’t mean that the majority actually steer clear of the suburbs. Five Thirty Eight recently took a deep dive into Census data, which shows that in 2014 people in their 20s moving out of cities and into suburbs far outnumber those going in the opposite direction. In the long run, the suburbs seem the overwhelming choice for settling down, with roughly two-thirds of millennial home buyers saying they prefer suburban locations and only 10% wanting to be in the city. It’s true that a smaller percentage of 20-somethings are moving to the suburbs compared with generations ago, but much of the reason why this is so is that millennials are getting married and having children later in life.

3. Millennials Don’t Want to Own Homes

Closely related to the theory that millennials like cities over suburbs is the idea that they like renting rather than owning. That goes not only for where they live, but also what they wear, what they drive, and more.

In terms of homes, the trope that millennials simply aren’t into ownership just isn’t true. Surveys show that the vast majority of millennials do, in fact, want to own homes. It’s just that, at least up until recently, monster student loans, a bad jobs market, the memory of their parents’ home being underwater, and/or their delayed entry into the world of marriage and parenthood have made homeownership less attractive or impossible.

What’s more, circumstances appear to be changing, and many more millennials are actually becoming homeowners. Bloomberg News noted that millennials constituted 32% of home buyers in 2014, up from 28% from 2012, making them the largest demographic in the market. Soaring rents, among other factors, have nudged millennials into seeing ownership as a more sensible option. Surveys show that 5.2 million renters expect to a buy a home this year, up from 4.2 million in 2014. Since young people represent a high portion of renters, we can expect the idea that millennials don’t want to own homes to be increasingly exposed as a myth.

4. Millennials Hate Cars

 Cars are just not cool. They’re bad for the environment, they cost too much, and, in an era when Uber is readily available and socializing online is arguably more important than socializing in person, having a car doesn’t seem all that necessary. Certainly not as necessary as a smartphone or broadband. Indeed, the idea that millennials could possibly not care about owning cars is one that has puzzled automakers, especially those in the car-crazed Baby Boom generation.

In many cases, the car industry has disregarded the concept, claiming that the economy rather than consumer interest is why fewer young people were buying cars. Whatever the case, the numbers show that the majority of millennials will own cars, regardless of whether they love them as much as their parents did when they were in their teens and 20s. According to Deloitte’s 2014 Gen Y Consumer Study, more than three-quarters of millennials plan on purchasing or leasing a car over the next five years, and 64% of millennials say they “love” their cars. Sales figures are reflecting the sentiment; in the first half of 2014, millennials outnumbered Gen X for the first time ever in terms of new car purchases.

5. Millennials Have a Different Attitude About Work

 As millennials entered the workforce and have become a more common presence in offices around the world, much attention has been focused on the unorthodox things that young people supposedly care more about than their older colleagues. Millennials, surveys and anecdotal evidence have shown, want to be able to wear jeans and have flexible work hours to greater degrees than Gen X and Boomers. Young people also want to be more collaborative, demand more feedback, and are less motivated by money than older generations.

That’s the broad take on what motivates millennial workers anyway. An IBM study on the matter suggests otherwise, however. “We discovered that Millennials want many of the same things their older colleagues do,” researchers state. There may be different preferences on smaller issues—like, say, the importance of being able to dress casually on the job—but when it comes to overarching work goals achieved in the long run, millennials are nearly identical to their more experienced colleagues: “They want financial security and seniority just as much as Gen X and Baby Boomers, and all three generations want to work with a diverse group of people.”

What’s more, IBM researchers say, millennials do indeed care about making more money at work, and that, despite their reputation as frequent “job hoppers,” they jump ship to other companies about as often as other generations, and their motivations are essentially the same: “When Millennials change jobs, they do so for much the same reasons as Gen X and Baby Boomers. More than 40 percent of all respondents say they would change jobs for more money and a more innovative environment.”

Sourced from here: http://time.com/money/everyday-money/

Monday, March 9, 2015

What happened to all those Phoenix area rentals??

March 8 - For the first time since we started measuring in 2006, there are fewer than 2,000 active single family rental listings on ARMLS (excluding a handful of UCBs and all vacation rentals). Since we are seeing about 2,250 signed leases a month, this represents only 25 days of supply.
The 1,988 rentals on offer average a staggering $1,971 per month, by far the highest average we have ever seen. This represents an average of 84.8 cents per sq. ft. per month. This time last year there 2,760 listings at an average of $1,598 per month or 75.5 cents per sq. ft. per month.
Two years ago there were 4,837 active listings at an average of $1,543 per month or 75.2 cents per sq. ft. per month. You can see that there was only a slight increase in asking prices between march 2013 and 2014 but a very strong increase between March 2014 and 2015.
There are only 587 active listings at or below $1,200 a month (the most sought after price range is $900 to $1,200). Since we are seeing 1,177 leases a month, this represents only 15 days supply of affordable rentals.
There are 1,387 active listings above $1,200 a month., represents 40 days of supply.
There are 548 at $2,000 a month or over, representing 94 days of supply.
Like the for-sale inventory, it is getting more and more skewed towards the high end. Affordable rentals are getting very scarce, while higher end rentals are in plentiful supply, with more being constructed every month.
This trend continues to develop and there is no sign yet of it stabilizing.
March 7 - Perhaps news of increased demand is bringing out more sellers. However the new listings that have been arriving are badly matched to the demand when we consider the variations by price range. 
Demand is up strongly for the lower and middle price ranges but new supply is heavily skewed towards the higher price ranges, where demand is actually lower than last year. As a result, sellers of properties over $800,000 are facing stronger competition from other sellers. Sellers below this price point are in a much more favorable position than last year, particularly those with homes priced below $400,000..
When we look at listings added from February 7 to March 6 in 2015 and compare with the same dates in 2014, we find:
  • new listings priced below $100,000 are down 30% (total value at list down 27%)
  • new listings between $100,000 and $200,000 are down 16% (total value at list down 15%)
  • new listings between $200,000 and $400,000 are up 1% (total value at list up 2%)
  • new listings between $400,000 and $800,000 are up 6% (total value at list up 7%)
  • new listings at $800,000 or more are up 13% (total value up 12%)
The surge in demand is for homes between $75,000 and $800,000, so the extra supply above $800,000 is joining inventory that is already plentiful.
Meanwhile inventory for the first time home buyer is in short supply and contract ratios for the well-located areas that are dominated by such homes are headed into "frenzy" territory.
The map below shows the ZIP codes where the Contract Ratio is over 100 (favoring sellers):










The majority of these are in the central West Valley with a few pockets in the closest parts of the Southeast Valley (particularly West Mesa)
Conversely the ZIP codes in the map below are either cold (blue) or lukewarm (green). 
Here we see the areas with weak Contract Ratios are concentrated in the Northeast Valley, outer areas of Maricopa County and most of Pinal County. 











March 6 - The number of active listings of single family homes has increased in some cities and fallen in others. Here is a table of the change between February 5 and March 5, excluding UCB listings. The lower the growth, the better the news is for sellers:
  1. Youngtown -44.4%
  2. Tolleson -26.1%
  3. Waddell -19.5%
  4. Wittmann - 14.9%
  5. Sun City -12.3%
  6. New River -12.0%
  7. Maricopa -11.4%
  8. Sun Lakes -10.6%
  9. Surprise -10.5%
  10. El Mirage -9.9%
  11. Tonopah -9.5%
  12. Eloy -8.9%
  13. Glendale -8.6%
  14. Apache Junction -8.5%
  15. Mesa -7.9%
  16. Buckeye -7.6%
  17. Phoenix -5.9%
  18. Avondale -5.8%
  19. Laveen -4.7%
  20. Chandler -4.5%
  21. Tempe -4.1%
  22. Peoria -3.8%
  23. Goodyear -3.7%
  24. Rio Verde -2.0%
  25. Arizona City -2.0%
  26. Carefree -1.5%
  27. Paradise Valley -1.5%
  28. Florence -1.2%
  29. Anthem -1.2%
  30. Scottsdale +0.1%
  31. Gold Canyon +0.3%
  32. Sun City West +0.8%
  33. Gilbert +1.2%
  34. Queen Creek +1.3%
  35. Coolidge +1.6%
  36. Litchfield Park +1.9%
  37. Fountain Hills +3.2%
  38. Wickenburg +3.4%
  39. Cave Creek +4.7%
  40. Casa Grande +4.8%
The top 29 cities are all showing at least some good news for sellers with the West Valley cities clearly dominant in the top 10. I am afraid there is nothing to get excited about for sellers in the bottom 11 cities.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Are you seeing a lot more apartments being built?! Me too.... Quick stats on this trend.

Cromford Daily Observations:

The Census Bureau has just released their permit data for Arizona covering January 2015. The total single family permit count for Maricopa and Pinal Counties was 866, down 4% from 902 in January 2014 and the lowest January total since 2012. The 12 month rolling average declined slightly to 11,705, down slightly from 11,741 last month.
Multi family permits were moderate with 344 in Maricopa County (none in Pinal). The total of multi family unit permits in 2014 was the third highest in history, after 2007 and 2005.
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So when people say, I can't believe all the apartments under constructions, you can say, yep, 3rd highest permits of multi family permits in history:)
If your curious what this means for you let me know.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

"We want to list it a little higher so we have wiggle room".....I'd think again.

**From ARMLS STAT:

Pollyanna vs Reality

From time to time there will be a set of numbers within STAT that just jumps at you, this month it was the dichotomy of list prices and sale prices. Over the past year we’ve repeatedly discussed the remarkable stability in our home prices. When we removed all the distressed sales and compared only the normal sales between December 2013 and December 2014, we saw the price per-square-foot rose only slightly, 1.7% from $133.10 to $135.41. When we compared January 2015 prices to December 2014 prices we saw a 1.2% decline in the median sales price and a 0.6% decline in the average sale price.  

As we continually state, these monthly anomalies are in no way an indication of declining prices, but only reiterate the remarkable price stability in our market. However, they do amplify the growing disparity between the price of properties listed for sale and the price at which properties are selling. 

In January the median list price increased 5.4% over December and the average list price in-creased 7.6%, widening an already existing gap. This gap becomes even more noticeable when we put the numbers side by side. The average list price in January was $354,500 while the average sales price was $255,000. The median list price in January was $230,000 while the median sales price in January was $194,700. Why is the average list price so much higher than the average sales price? If the property being marketed is listed too far above market expectations, reality will manifest in the lack of showings and/or offers leading to a price (reduction? - word missing).

Pending Price Index

Last month our Pending Price Index (PPI) projected a January median price of $195,000 with the actual median coming in at $194,700. Looking ahead to February, the ARMLS Pending Price Index projects a median sales price of $194,822. Prices are expected to remain flat. Sales volume for January was nearly identical to sales volume in January 2014, final numbers showed 4,784 this year compared to 4,797. January 2015 had 20 business days while January 2014 had 21.  With both the number of pending sales contracts and the number of UCB listings being greater than last year at this time, it is anticipated that February 2015 sales volume will exceed the volume of 5,474 of February 2014. We may only be taking baby steps at this time but our market is modestly moving forward.  
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MikeB Comment: You've no doubt received your own copy of ARMLS STAT in your email (as an ARMLS member). I've attached here as well.

It's a must read for the major talking point to sellers that in the 'flat' market we're currently experiencing, in most cases they cannot hope to push the envelope in price. 

The formula for getting a property sold remains the same: 

Competitively Position your listing as the 'next best' available in that market segment, all things considered, and it will be the next one sold. 

Here is a great YouTube video put on by our brokerage's trainer on the subject.  


**Ps. While this is a Valley-centric piece I know that to a greater or lesser degree the same is happening State-wide i.e. the growing disparity between the initial asking price and sale price. So I'm trusting those of you in our Northern and Southern offices can get value from the above. But if this is interesting to you and you want data at your local level read on...

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Strength back in the Phoenix area real estate market...

February 16 - Since the Super Bowl ended we have seen the liveliest two weeks for demand for a long time and we can see several areas with very strong numbers of listings under contract compared with this time last year.

Market Segment (within Greater Phoenix)Under Contract 2/16/14Under Contract 2/16/15Growth %
All of Greater Phoenix9,39310,28810%healthy overall growth 2015 over 2014 
Normal Listings Across Greater Phoenix6,6578,43227%strength in normal listings
Distressed Listings Across Greater Phoenix2,7361,858-32%distressed listings fading in significance
Normal Single Family (Greater PHX)5,5177,06328%single family resurgence
Normal Condo (Greater PHX)9711,18722%condo slightly behind single family
Normal Under $100,000558486-13%little demand under $100K
Normal $100,000 to $150,0001302142710%average
Normal $150,000 to $175,00071694031%strong
Normal $175,000 to $200,00066491938%very strong
Normal $200,000 to $250,0009371,41651%exceptional demand growth
Normal $250,000 to $300,00072194831%strong
Normal $300,000 to $400,0007411,08847%exceptional demand growth
Normal $400,000 to $500,00036948030%strong
Normal $500,000 to $600,00018024134%strong
Normal $600,000 to $800,00018320713%average
Normal $800,000 to $1,000,00094973%little growth
Normal $1,000,000 to $1,500,000971003%little growth
Normal $1,500,000 to $3,000,0008069-14%weaker than last year
Over $3,000,0001514-7%weaker than last year


The high end luxury market is fading while the regular luxury market is showing just a little growth over last year.


The most popular ranges are $150,000 to $600,000, which is good news for developers and for sellers of existing homes. Here we see a very sudden upswing in buyer interest that wasn't there in January.
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Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast:
     
Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending February 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $130.82 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is 0.5% above the $130.11 we now measure for January 15 and represents a small increase in average pricing, as forecast. In fact our forecast range was $129.13 to $134.41 with a mid-point of $131.77. Last month's forecast was 95 cents above the actual price per square foot measured, but well within the forecast range.

On February 15, REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $83.12 per sq. ft. (down 1.5%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $98.43 (down 11.3%) while normal sales averaged $135.44 (up 1.3%). The market share of normal sales dropped from 89.6% to 89.1% over the last 31 days. REOs gained market share from 6.2% to 6.5%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures also rose from 4.2% to 4.4%. Despite the increase in distressed home share, the 1.3% rise in the average price per sq. ft. of normal sales carried the day.

On February 15 the pending listings for all areas & types showed an average list $/SF of $130.80, 0.4% above the reading for January 15. Among those pending listings we have 84.4% normal, 6.7% in REOs and 8.9% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This is a large decline in the share for distressed homes, which will be positive for pricing as we move into March. The average pricing for pending listings within Greater Phoenix on February 15 in each category was: $137.77 for normal, $92.31 for short sales & pre-foreclosures and $86.03 for REOs. The figure for REO sales is higher than last month, but those for short sales & pre-foreclosures and normal sales are lower.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on March 15 is $132.18, which is 1.0% higher than the February 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $129.54 to $134.82. Our forecast this month is therefore for a slight move higher in sales pricing over the next month. This also happens to follow a pattern which is common in most years where pricing moves higher during the spring season.


We are seeing much stronger upward movement in pending listing counts and under contract counts than we did last month or last year. We therefore expect good demand during the spring selling season and no significant downward pressure in pricing.
Supply numbers are still weaker than last year at this time, so the market is shaping up quite nicely for sellers as long as they are patient. If the current trends continue and spread through more market segments then we could see prices regain a little upward momentum later in the year.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Market Update - Stats heavy so if that bores you look at the bullet points : )

Market Summary for the Beginning of February
January was a mixed bag. 
Supporting the pessimists we saw weaker sales counts than last year (down 1.7%) and lower prices than in December (median down 1.0%, $/SF down 0.8%). We also witnessed the pending listing count failing to beat last year, though it did rise 27.7% during January.
Supporting the optimists, the active listing count (excluding UCB) rose only 6% during January and remains 6.2% below the same point in 2014. More importantly, the under contract count rose 30.5% during January and finally overtook last year, beating it by 2.1%.
Overall it looks like a reasonable but not at all spectacular start to the year. Supply remains weak, especially at the affordable end of the market. At the top end supply is starting to pack on weight and sellers of luxury homes are going to be facing more competition.
Contract activity is definitely looking up, although this is strongly weighted towards UCB status and away from pending status compared to earlier years. As long as we assume that most agents are using UCB "incorrectly" and that most of the UCB listings would have been designated as pending six years ago (pre Zillow's dominance), then the picture looks consistent with a very modest recovery in demand. 34% of normal listings under contract are now coded as UCB. Six years ago this was just 7% (when it was called AWC). The shift towards UCB has been strong and relentless and is still moving in the same direction.
Sellers at the low and medium price ranges have some valid reasons to feel hopeful as we head into the prime selling season. Buyers are certainly not in trouble yet, but they need to keep an eye on supply. If that starts falling early this year we could see the re-emergence of multiple bids over the next 21 months.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for February 1, 2015 relative to February 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
  • Active Listings (excluding UCB): 23,950 versus 25,541 last year - down 6.2% - but up 6.0% from 22,604 last month 

  • Active Listings (including UCB): 27,095 versus 28,413 last year - down 4.6% - but up 8.7% compared with 24,918 last month 

  • Pending Listings: 5,631 versus 5,723 last year - down 1.6% - but up 27.7% from 4,410 last month

  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 8,776 versus 8,595 last year - up 2.1% - and up 30.5% from 6,724 last month

  • Monthly Sales: 4,781 versus 4,862 last year - down 1.7% - and down 26.1% from 6,466 last month

  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $130.87 versus $125.54 last year - up 4.2% - but down 0.8% from $131.87 last month 

  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $195,000 versus $183,000 last year - up 6.6% - but down 1.0% from $197,000 last month
The first time home buyer is critical to the next stage of the recovery. Some writers point to signs of the Millennial generation becoming home owners in normal numbers at last. I am not seeing convincing evidence of that yet, though that could be because it is still too early to detect. Those involved in credit repair appear to be busy, so I suspect improvement in demand may be more connected to former home owners coming back onto the market after their long time-out in the penalty box.

Monday, February 2, 2015

Household Formation News - Could Have BIG Impact on Market

January 31 - The local housing market might be pretty quiet right now, but we are seeing dramatic action in the numbers just released by the Census Bureau. Household formation shot through the roof during the fourth quarter. THIS IS BIG NEWS, despite there being little reporting of it in the media at large.
The annual household formation numbers for the fourth quarter were as follows:
  • October 2014 = 1,435,000
  • November 2014 = 1,618,000
  • December 2014 = 2,001,000
These are colossal numbers, especially compared with 12 months ago:
  • October 2013 = -110,000
  • November 2013 = 103,000
  • December 2013 = -205,000
The December number of just over 2 million is the highest we have seen since June 2005, almost 10 years ago and at the height of the housing bubble.
At the moment this household formation rate is translating into demand for rentals, but in every up cycle this is the first stage and it is usually followed by an upturn in demand for homes to buy. Household formation is usually a leading indicator of both upturns and downturns in the housing market, especially when examined as a 12-month rolling average. 
The current chasrt looks like this:


Thursday, January 29, 2015

National Real Estate Update by City

The S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® report for September through November was published today and we can therefore rank the 20 cities by the change in index over the last month:
  1. Tampa +0.84%
  2. Miami +0.59%
  3. Las Vegas +0.35%
  4. San Diego +0.29%
  5. Los Angeles +0.28%
  6. Phoenix +0.16%
  7. Atlanta +0.15%
  8. Dallas +0.11%
  9. Denver +0.09%
  10. San Francisco +0.08%
  11. Portland +0.06%
  12. Boston -0.22%
  13. Charlotte -0.30%
  14. Cleveland -0.35%
  15. Seattle -0.38%
  16. Washington DC -0.51%
  17. Minneapolis -0.73%
  18. New York -0.79%
  19. Detroit -0.87%
  20. Chicago -1.06%
Although 11 of the cities saw an increase over the last month the composite 20-city index fell 0.22%. Although we only saw a small 0.16% gain, this was enough to put Phoenix into 6th place
Examining the 12-month percentage changes we find:
  1. San Francisco +8.91%
  2. Miami +8.58%
  3. Las Vegas +7.70%
  4. Dallas +7.67%
  5. Denver +7.48%
  6. Tampa +6.77%
  7. Portland +6.58%
  8. Seattle +6.01%
  9. Los Angeles +5.11%
  10. Atlanta +4.92%
  11. San Diego +4.90%
  12. Boston +3.95%
  13. Charlotte +3.29%
  14. Detroit +2.58%
  15. Chicago +1.99%
  16. Phoenix +1.94%
  17. Washington DC +1.85%
  18. New York +1.51%
  19. Minneapolis +1.47%
  20. Cleveland +0.61%
For annual appreciation Phoenix is well below the 20-city average of +4.31% in 16th place. We saw our appreciation rate slow down earlier than other cities, just as we saw our initial recovery start earlier than the rest of the country in 2011.
The whole country now looks to be in the process of stabilizing at close to the general inflation rate. We don't expect to see any major shifts over the next 12 months.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

What December Slowdown!

Cromford Daily Observation:
December was a huge month for luxury homes sales - the best December since 2006 with 109 closed transactions across Greater Phoenix for homes priced at $1 million and above. This was an increase of 10% over December 2013. Only 2 of the closed sales were distressed and these were short sales.
By price range, comparing December sales for single family homes across Greater Phoenix:
  • $500,000 to $600,000 - highest number of units sold through ARMLS since 2006
  • $600,000 to $800,000 - highest since 2006
  • $800,000 to $1,000,000 - highest since 2006
  • $1 to $1.5 million - same as 2012
  • $1.5 to $2 million - equaled the previous record set in 2006
  • $2 to $3 million - highest since 2007
  • Over $3 million - 1 fewer than last year
The ultra-high end was not quite as impressive as recently, but 2014 was the best full year since 2008 with 84 closings for homes priced over $3 million.
Once again we did not see any resales over $10 million, the highest price paid being $9,750,000 for a home listed at $10,995,000
There are 11 optimists listing homes over $12,500,000, which is the highest price ever paid for a resale home in Greater Phoenix. There are 4 homes listed over $20 million. Finding a buyer for a re-sale over $12.5 million is a huge challenge. Buyers with this sort of money to spend usually build new. Such a new sale doesn't in the records appear because the recorded transaction transferring ownership of the parcel to the buyer usually occurs while it is an empty lot. Payment for the construction of the home is not a recordable event as no transfer of real estate takes place, only improvements on the existing lot. This makes new ultra-high-end custom home sales very difficult to track for price, completion date and sq ft. The assessor's data on sq. ft., is usually wildly different from the builders plans submitted.
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Of the month of December 2014 luxury single family sales over 1 million mentioned above, here's how the market share breaks out by dollar volume, by broker.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Market Update - For My Numbers Guru's...

Market Summary for the Beginning of 2015
The average person will assume that November was a fairly normal month and that December was full of holidays. Not true. Instead there were only 17 working days in November and 22 in December. That is a 29% increase in the number of days in which title companies could close sales and county recorders could file deeds. As a result November's numbers looked terrible at first sight while December's looked amazingly good. But the primary reason sales were up 29% in December over November is that days to record sales were up 29%.
When we adjust for the differently sized months we still find there was some real improvement in the market for sellers. December's sales were slightly stronger than expected, as we forecast in last month's summary. But by far the biggest factor that changed was that supply fell much faster than normal during the month.
Whatever the cause, sellers have a few sound reasons to feel hopeful as we head towards the spring selling season which, like the warm weather, starts very early in Phoenix.
Here are the basic ARMLS numbers for January 1, 2015 relative to January 1, 2014 for all areas & types:
  • Active Listings (excluding UCB): 22,604 versus 23,091 last year - down 2.1% - and down 8.1% from 24,593 last month 
  • Active Listings (including UCB): 24,918 versus 25,319 last year - down 1.6% - and down 9.1% compared with 27,427 last month 
  • Pending Listings: 4,410 versus 4,667 last year - down 5.5% - and down 19.8% from 5,497 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 6,724 versus 6,895 last year - down 2.5% - and down 19.3% from 8,331 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,496 versus 5,837 last year - up 11.3% - and up 29.9% from 5,000 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $131.62 versus $123.48 last year - up 3.2% - and up 1.8% from $129.30 last month 
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $197,000 versus $185,500 last year - up 6.2% - and up 2.6% from $192,000 last month
Pricing was surprisingly strong in December with the median up over 6% from the prior year and $/SF up over 3%. However these gains are very small compared with the previous 2 years. Much of the advance is due to continuing improvements in the mix in favor of higher priced homes. We must also remember that seller concessions do not get reflected in the prices recorded.
There was little to dislike in the December numbers and that fact that sales volume exceeded December 2013 by more than 11% is definitely encouraging. 2014 was a lackluster year with low supply and even lower demand and it looks like demand is starting to show a few mild signs of life. Even so, we are starting the year with a very low number of homes under contract by normal standards. The big question is what will happen to supply. If it arrives in bulk over the next 3 months then buyers will retain the advantage they enjoyed during 2014. If, as seems more likely based on what we saw in the last 4 weeks, supply grows relatively slowly, then sellers will regain their advantage and prices could start to see some upward pressure building again.
On the second day of the month it is too early to make the call on supply, but by the middle of January we should have some real data to indicate how the year is likely to develop.
Supply is already well below normal and if demand returned quickly to normal we could see a replay similar to conditions in 2012, except that ordinary owner-occupiers would be dominant instead of investors.