Tuesday, March 31, 2015

5 Big Myths About What Millennials Truly Want

We've heard a ton about millennials—where they want to live, what they love to eat, what's most important to them in the workplace, and so on. It's time to set the record straight.

In some ways, it’s foolish to make broad generalizations about any generation, each of which numbers into the tens of millions of people. Nonetheless, demographers, marketers, and we in real estate can’t help but want to draw conclusions about their motivations and desires. That’s especially true when it comes to the young people who conveniently came of age with the Internet and smartphones, making it possible for their preferences and personal data to be tracked from birth.

Naturally, everyone focuses on what makes each generation different. Sometimes those differences, however slight, come to be viewed as hugely significant breaks from the past when in fact they’re pretty minor. There’s a tendency to oversimplify and paint with an exceptionally broad brush for the sake of catchy headlines and easily digestible info nuggets. (Again, we’re as guilty of this as anyone, admittedly.) The result is that widely accepted truisms are actually myths—or at least only tell part of the story. Upon closer inspection, there’s good reason to call these five generalizations about millennials into question.

1. Millennials Don’t Like Fast Food

 One of the most accepted truisms about millennials—easily the most over examined generation in history—is that they are foodies who love going out to eat. And when they eat, they want it to be special, with fresh, high-quality ingredients that can be mixed and matched according to their whims, not some stale, processed cookie-cutter package served to the masses.

In other words, millennials are huge fans of Chipotle and fast-casual restaurants, while they wouldn’t be caught dead in McDonald’s. In fact, the disdain of millennials for McDonald’s is frequently noted as a prime reason the fast food giant has struggled mightily of late.

But guess what? Even though survey data shows that millennials prefer fast-casual over fast food, and even though some stats indicate millennial visits to fast food establishments are falling, younger consumers are far more likely to dine at McDonald’s than at Chipotle, Panera Bread, and other fast-casual restaurants.

Last summer, a Wall Street Journal article pointed out that millennials are increasingly turning away from McDonald’s in favor of fast casual. Yet a chart in the story shows that roughly 75% of millennials said they go to McDonald’s at least once a month, while only 20% to 25% of millennials visit a fast-casual restaurant of any kind that frequently. Similarly, data collected by Morgan Stanley cited in a recent Business Insider post shows that millennials not only eat at McDonald’s more than at any other restaurant chain, but that they’re just as likely to go to McDonald’s as Gen Xers and more likely to dine there than Boomers.

At the same time, McDonald’s was the restaurant brand that millennials would least likely recommend publicly to others, with Burger King, Taco Bell, KFC, and Jack in the Box also coming in toward the bottom in the spectrum of what millennials find worthy of their endorsements. What it looks like, then, is that millennials are fast food regulars, but they’re ashamed about it.

2. Millennials Want to Live in Cities, Not Suburbs

 Another broad generalization about millennials is that they prefer urban settings, where they can walk or take the bus, subway, or Uber virtually anywhere they need to go. There are some facts to back this up. According to an October 2014 White House report, millennials were the most likely group to move into mid-size cities, and the number of young people living in such cities was 5% higher compared with 30 years prior. The apparent preference for cities has been pointed to as a reason why Costco isn’t big with millennials, who seem to not live close enough to the warehouse retailer’s suburban locations to justify a membership, nor do their apartments have space for Costco’s bulk-size purchases. 

But just because the percentage of young people living in cities has been inching up doesn’t mean that the majority actually steer clear of the suburbs. Five Thirty Eight recently took a deep dive into Census data, which shows that in 2014 people in their 20s moving out of cities and into suburbs far outnumber those going in the opposite direction. In the long run, the suburbs seem the overwhelming choice for settling down, with roughly two-thirds of millennial home buyers saying they prefer suburban locations and only 10% wanting to be in the city. It’s true that a smaller percentage of 20-somethings are moving to the suburbs compared with generations ago, but much of the reason why this is so is that millennials are getting married and having children later in life.

3. Millennials Don’t Want to Own Homes

Closely related to the theory that millennials like cities over suburbs is the idea that they like renting rather than owning. That goes not only for where they live, but also what they wear, what they drive, and more.

In terms of homes, the trope that millennials simply aren’t into ownership just isn’t true. Surveys show that the vast majority of millennials do, in fact, want to own homes. It’s just that, at least up until recently, monster student loans, a bad jobs market, the memory of their parents’ home being underwater, and/or their delayed entry into the world of marriage and parenthood have made homeownership less attractive or impossible.

What’s more, circumstances appear to be changing, and many more millennials are actually becoming homeowners. Bloomberg News noted that millennials constituted 32% of home buyers in 2014, up from 28% from 2012, making them the largest demographic in the market. Soaring rents, among other factors, have nudged millennials into seeing ownership as a more sensible option. Surveys show that 5.2 million renters expect to a buy a home this year, up from 4.2 million in 2014. Since young people represent a high portion of renters, we can expect the idea that millennials don’t want to own homes to be increasingly exposed as a myth.

4. Millennials Hate Cars

 Cars are just not cool. They’re bad for the environment, they cost too much, and, in an era when Uber is readily available and socializing online is arguably more important than socializing in person, having a car doesn’t seem all that necessary. Certainly not as necessary as a smartphone or broadband. Indeed, the idea that millennials could possibly not care about owning cars is one that has puzzled automakers, especially those in the car-crazed Baby Boom generation.

In many cases, the car industry has disregarded the concept, claiming that the economy rather than consumer interest is why fewer young people were buying cars. Whatever the case, the numbers show that the majority of millennials will own cars, regardless of whether they love them as much as their parents did when they were in their teens and 20s. According to Deloitte’s 2014 Gen Y Consumer Study, more than three-quarters of millennials plan on purchasing or leasing a car over the next five years, and 64% of millennials say they “love” their cars. Sales figures are reflecting the sentiment; in the first half of 2014, millennials outnumbered Gen X for the first time ever in terms of new car purchases.

5. Millennials Have a Different Attitude About Work

 As millennials entered the workforce and have become a more common presence in offices around the world, much attention has been focused on the unorthodox things that young people supposedly care more about than their older colleagues. Millennials, surveys and anecdotal evidence have shown, want to be able to wear jeans and have flexible work hours to greater degrees than Gen X and Boomers. Young people also want to be more collaborative, demand more feedback, and are less motivated by money than older generations.

That’s the broad take on what motivates millennial workers anyway. An IBM study on the matter suggests otherwise, however. “We discovered that Millennials want many of the same things their older colleagues do,” researchers state. There may be different preferences on smaller issues—like, say, the importance of being able to dress casually on the job—but when it comes to overarching work goals achieved in the long run, millennials are nearly identical to their more experienced colleagues: “They want financial security and seniority just as much as Gen X and Baby Boomers, and all three generations want to work with a diverse group of people.”

What’s more, IBM researchers say, millennials do indeed care about making more money at work, and that, despite their reputation as frequent “job hoppers,” they jump ship to other companies about as often as other generations, and their motivations are essentially the same: “When Millennials change jobs, they do so for much the same reasons as Gen X and Baby Boomers. More than 40 percent of all respondents say they would change jobs for more money and a more innovative environment.”

Sourced from here: http://time.com/money/everyday-money/

Monday, March 9, 2015

What happened to all those Phoenix area rentals??

March 8 - For the first time since we started measuring in 2006, there are fewer than 2,000 active single family rental listings on ARMLS (excluding a handful of UCBs and all vacation rentals). Since we are seeing about 2,250 signed leases a month, this represents only 25 days of supply.
The 1,988 rentals on offer average a staggering $1,971 per month, by far the highest average we have ever seen. This represents an average of 84.8 cents per sq. ft. per month. This time last year there 2,760 listings at an average of $1,598 per month or 75.5 cents per sq. ft. per month.
Two years ago there were 4,837 active listings at an average of $1,543 per month or 75.2 cents per sq. ft. per month. You can see that there was only a slight increase in asking prices between march 2013 and 2014 but a very strong increase between March 2014 and 2015.
There are only 587 active listings at or below $1,200 a month (the most sought after price range is $900 to $1,200). Since we are seeing 1,177 leases a month, this represents only 15 days supply of affordable rentals.
There are 1,387 active listings above $1,200 a month., represents 40 days of supply.
There are 548 at $2,000 a month or over, representing 94 days of supply.
Like the for-sale inventory, it is getting more and more skewed towards the high end. Affordable rentals are getting very scarce, while higher end rentals are in plentiful supply, with more being constructed every month.
This trend continues to develop and there is no sign yet of it stabilizing.
March 7 - Perhaps news of increased demand is bringing out more sellers. However the new listings that have been arriving are badly matched to the demand when we consider the variations by price range. 
Demand is up strongly for the lower and middle price ranges but new supply is heavily skewed towards the higher price ranges, where demand is actually lower than last year. As a result, sellers of properties over $800,000 are facing stronger competition from other sellers. Sellers below this price point are in a much more favorable position than last year, particularly those with homes priced below $400,000..
When we look at listings added from February 7 to March 6 in 2015 and compare with the same dates in 2014, we find:
  • new listings priced below $100,000 are down 30% (total value at list down 27%)
  • new listings between $100,000 and $200,000 are down 16% (total value at list down 15%)
  • new listings between $200,000 and $400,000 are up 1% (total value at list up 2%)
  • new listings between $400,000 and $800,000 are up 6% (total value at list up 7%)
  • new listings at $800,000 or more are up 13% (total value up 12%)
The surge in demand is for homes between $75,000 and $800,000, so the extra supply above $800,000 is joining inventory that is already plentiful.
Meanwhile inventory for the first time home buyer is in short supply and contract ratios for the well-located areas that are dominated by such homes are headed into "frenzy" territory.
The map below shows the ZIP codes where the Contract Ratio is over 100 (favoring sellers):










The majority of these are in the central West Valley with a few pockets in the closest parts of the Southeast Valley (particularly West Mesa)
Conversely the ZIP codes in the map below are either cold (blue) or lukewarm (green). 
Here we see the areas with weak Contract Ratios are concentrated in the Northeast Valley, outer areas of Maricopa County and most of Pinal County. 











March 6 - The number of active listings of single family homes has increased in some cities and fallen in others. Here is a table of the change between February 5 and March 5, excluding UCB listings. The lower the growth, the better the news is for sellers:
  1. Youngtown -44.4%
  2. Tolleson -26.1%
  3. Waddell -19.5%
  4. Wittmann - 14.9%
  5. Sun City -12.3%
  6. New River -12.0%
  7. Maricopa -11.4%
  8. Sun Lakes -10.6%
  9. Surprise -10.5%
  10. El Mirage -9.9%
  11. Tonopah -9.5%
  12. Eloy -8.9%
  13. Glendale -8.6%
  14. Apache Junction -8.5%
  15. Mesa -7.9%
  16. Buckeye -7.6%
  17. Phoenix -5.9%
  18. Avondale -5.8%
  19. Laveen -4.7%
  20. Chandler -4.5%
  21. Tempe -4.1%
  22. Peoria -3.8%
  23. Goodyear -3.7%
  24. Rio Verde -2.0%
  25. Arizona City -2.0%
  26. Carefree -1.5%
  27. Paradise Valley -1.5%
  28. Florence -1.2%
  29. Anthem -1.2%
  30. Scottsdale +0.1%
  31. Gold Canyon +0.3%
  32. Sun City West +0.8%
  33. Gilbert +1.2%
  34. Queen Creek +1.3%
  35. Coolidge +1.6%
  36. Litchfield Park +1.9%
  37. Fountain Hills +3.2%
  38. Wickenburg +3.4%
  39. Cave Creek +4.7%
  40. Casa Grande +4.8%
The top 29 cities are all showing at least some good news for sellers with the West Valley cities clearly dominant in the top 10. I am afraid there is nothing to get excited about for sellers in the bottom 11 cities.

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Are you seeing a lot more apartments being built?! Me too.... Quick stats on this trend.

Cromford Daily Observations:

The Census Bureau has just released their permit data for Arizona covering January 2015. The total single family permit count for Maricopa and Pinal Counties was 866, down 4% from 902 in January 2014 and the lowest January total since 2012. The 12 month rolling average declined slightly to 11,705, down slightly from 11,741 last month.
Multi family permits were moderate with 344 in Maricopa County (none in Pinal). The total of multi family unit permits in 2014 was the third highest in history, after 2007 and 2005.
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So when people say, I can't believe all the apartments under constructions, you can say, yep, 3rd highest permits of multi family permits in history:)
If your curious what this means for you let me know.