Continued Slide QC/San Tan Getting Crushed

 Mar 21 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities ~

The table is still reporting a swing in favor of buyers but the swing has stopped slowing down and is now starting to accelerate again. We have 14 cities that have deteriorated for sellers over the last month and 4 that have improved. Cave Creek dropped out from the improving group. The average change in CMI over the past month is -1.9% while last week we saw -1.5%. This ends the trend that started 4 weeks ago and starts a new one. The difference is only slight however.

The fastest decliners are Tempe and Queen Creek, which includes the large unincorporated county area known as San Tan Valley. All other decliners fell by less than 7%.

We have 9 cities that are still seller's markets, 3 that are balanced and 5 that are buyer's markets. Avondale and Glendale moved from balanced to a very weak seller's market, joining Phoenix, Tempe, Fountain Hills and Gilbert in the zone between 110 and 120. Only 3 cities are at 120 or higher, We can see that although there are 9 cities that are still technically seller's markets they are all below 141 so not strongly favoring sellers. However the 5 cities that are buyer's markets very strongly favor buyers, especially Maricopa and Buckeye.

Although we are in the peak of the buying season, supply is still outstripping demand. Confirming this view, the homebuilders are reporting slightly disappointing sales given the elevated level of incentives.

Although the slope is not steep, the direction of the market remains downhill.

Market Shifting...but it will take time.

Market Update:

March 2025 Arizona Real Estate Market Update 📢

The Greater Phoenix housing market is shifting, with 44% more single-family detached listings available than this time last year. However, the increase in inventory varies by price range:

• Under $350K: 📈 70% more inventory than last year
• $350K–$600K: 📈 51% more inventory
• $600K–$1M: 📈 38% more inventory
• $1M–$3M: 📈 27% more inventory
• $3M–$7.5M: 📈 21% more inventory
• Over $7.5M: 📉 4% fewer listings than a year ago

🔥 What This Means for the Market
While inventory is rising, price declines may take longer to materialize. The reason? Higher-priced homes make up a significant portion of the market, propping up overall price metrics. Additionally, since buyer activity in the lower price ranges has slowed, fewer transactions are being recorded—delaying the statistical impact of declining values. In short, while individual sellers may feel downward pressure sooner, broader market data may take longer to reflect a shift.

🏡 For Buyers: More choices, more negotiating power, and potentially softer prices ahead.
📉 For Sellers: Pricing aggressively and preparing your home for sale is more crucial than ever.

Here is a graph of price reductions.  These are not yet recorded because they haven’t sold. Once they do the data will hit the market.  Or…they don’t sell and take it off the market and the reality of this situation stays in the dark even longer.