Arizona Real Estate Market Update – Summer 2025
Arizona's housing market continues its steady shift in favor of buyers as we close out the second quarter of 2025. The Cromford® Market Index dropped another 2.7% on average across the 17 largest cities—mirroring last week’s decline. Only Paradise Valley showed improvement, primarily due to seasonal listing cancellations. The rest of the Valley is experiencing mild downward pressure, with Buckeye, Fountain Hills, and Phoenix seeing the steepest drops.
Despite the softening market, we are not heading toward a crash. Most homeowners remain reluctant to give up their low mortgage rates, keeping new inventory at a trickle. Prices, however, are trending downward—active listing prices fell 2.4% this past month, while the median sales price edged down from $451,000 to $449,500. With the third quarter historically being the weakest for home values, we expect further softening through the end of summer.
Importantly, investors are watching closely. Once prices fall to levels that produce desirable rental returns, expect institutional and private investor activity to kick in—creating a price floor that will likely prevent a full market collapse.
This is not a panic moment—it’s a market reset. Sellers who want to succeed must work with professionals who understand hyper-local dynamics. Broad trends are useful, but success will come from knowing the specific comps, competition, and pricing in your immediate neighborhood.
We’ve entered a new cycle. Smart strategies and local expertise will define the winners in this next chapter.
