Market Pulse: What the Cromford® Report is Really Telling Us
Take a look at the latest Cromford® Market Index values for the Valley’s 17 largest single-family markets:
The story that began five weeks ago is still gaining momentum. Supply keeps dropping, demand is nudging upward, and the average monthly change in CMI has jumped to 9.3%, an improvement over last week’s 8.4%. Fourteen of the 17 cities strengthened for sellers, while only Maricopa and Tempe tilted toward buyers, with Glendale staying flat.
High-end markets are clearly flexing their muscle. Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Scottsdale are moving faster than Paradise Valley in percentage growth, but PV still sits in its own league. Meanwhile, more affordable cities like Avondale, Peoria, and Gilbert are up over 10%, making them standouts for buyers looking for leverage.
Source: Cromford Report®
Why Headlines Don’t Tell the Story
It’s tempting to look at all those green arrows and declare, “We’re back in a seller’s market!” But that’s not the whole picture. Our job as real estate professionals isn’t to echo headlines, it’s to dig deeper. Clients count on us to interpret what’s really happening so they can make confident decisions—and that’s what sets us apart from the broad brush commentary out there.
The 7 Key Metrics That Matter
To move past surface-level market chatter, I lean on seven key metrics:
-
Supply (Accrued vs. New Listings) – How much inventory is truly building vs. how much is fresh to the market.
-
Demand (Closings vs. Listings Under Contract) – Tells us whether buyer action is actually following through.
-
Listing Success Rate – The percentage of homes that actually sell in a given price range or neighborhood.
-
Months Supply – Less than 4 months = seller’s market, 4–6 = balanced, more than 6 = buyer’s market. Luxury markets often run higher due to smaller buyer pools.
-
Price Trends – Are prices climbing, leveling, or softening?
-
List-to-Sales Price Ratio – How much discounting sellers are conceding to close deals.
-
Market Segment Idiosyncrasies – Seasonal factors, price-point nuances, and neighborhood-level quirks.
A Closer Look at Paradise Valley
Since PV sits at the top of the stack, let’s break it down. Using FlexMLS Market Trends Graphs (criteria: PV; SFD; YTD; all status):
-
Active Listings vs. New Listings: 106 active, 21 new.
-
Sold vs. Pending: 28 sold, 12 pending.
-
Price Trends: Year-to-date, prices have risen, but recently leveled off. The average sales are drifting from the $5–6M range down into the mid-$3–4M range, while the average active list price is holding near $7M.
-
List-to-Sales Price Ratio: Sellers are conceding more, confirming some softening beneath the surface of what looks like a “hot” market.
Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
The devil is in the details. It’s not enough to say “Paradise Valley is a seller’s market” without also noting that prices are leveling and sellers are discounting more at closing. That’s the nuance your agent needs to bring to the table.
For sellers: yes, demand is holding, but pricing correctly is critical when average sales are sliding below list prices.
For buyers: leverage exists, especially if you’re shopping above $5M, where seller flexibility is more evident.
And across the Valley, the split between high-end and low-to-mid markets is widening. Luxury is strong for sellers, but many mid-tier markets are still buyer-friendly.
.png)
Looking Ahead
As we move into fall, it will be fascinating to watch how supply and demand dance together. The Cromford® Report notes that demand is gently rising while new inventory slows, a dynamic that always shifts balance in favor of sellers—at least on the surface.
Our job is to keep cutting through the noise and bringing clarity to the submarkets where our clients are actually buying and selling.
