Here’s the latest Cromford Market Index update for single family homes across the 18 biggest Valley cities.
We’re really seeing two types of buyers right now. The first group is waiting for interest rates to drop, holding off in hopes that affordability improves. The second group has accepted that rates are what they are and that it’s still better than renting. They’ve realized that waiting around is no longer a smart financial move since there’s no clear sign that rates will come down anytime soon.
Right now 15 cities have shifted more in favor of buyers this month while just 3, Tempe, Gilbert, and Mesa, are leaning more toward sellers. Cave Creek and Avondale saw the biggest improvement for buyers, but for most cities the change was pretty small at around 6 percent or less.
Overall the average CMI dropped 2.8 percent this week compared to 1.1 percent last week, and that downward trend will likely keep going until mid November. At the moment there are 5 cities sitting in seller’s markets, 6 balanced, and 7 in buyer’s markets.
What’s driving it
Supply continues to climb. Demand is technically improving too, but very slowly. If things follow the usual seasonal pattern, inventory should hit its high point around mid November, which means sellers could see about six weeks of less competition before the holidays.
Demand is trickier to predict. It’s not just financial, it’s emotional too. Right now overall demand is about 20 percent below normal, but it could shift either way depending on how buyers feel about rates and affordability.
