Despite there being very little sign of an improvement in demand, the market continues to swing slowly but surely back towards a more neutral and balanced state thanks to the weakest arrival rate of new listings in 14 years. This pushes the Cromford® Supply Index down and hence the Cromford® Market Index moves up. When we look at the single family market in the major and secondary cities over the last week we see:
Here we see 22 cities with an improved market for sellers and only 7 deteriorating. The largest percentage improvements were seen in:
- Gold Canyon
- Litchfield Park
- Sun Lakes
- Sun City West
- Fountain Hills
- Tempe
- Chandler
- Goodyear
Deterioration of more than 1% was seen only in:
- Casa Grande
- Laveen
The overall Cromford® Market Index has risen from 92.0 to 92.5 over the last week, certainly not a spectacular move but we are now well inside the balanced zone between 90 and 110.
The improvements in the cities that have become more favorable for sellers are mostly due to reduced supply. For example, active listings in Gold Canyon are down from 185 on June 26 to 118 today (excluding UCB). However Litchfield Park is unusual in seeing a short term uptick in demand.
Demand from investors has now dropped below normal and the market is once again dominated by regular MLS sales. Most agents who work only normal re-sale listings are experiencing pretty reasonable market conditions. However, the new home market remains in the doldrums and much weaker than expected. The REO and short sale sectors are much quieter than they used to be and this is not just due to lower numbers. Ordinary buyers are much less interested in rehabilitating a property. It is noticeable that most well-priced homes in great condition are moving more quickly than those that need a lot of work.
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