Arizona Home Appreciation by Zip Code

Cromford Daily Observation - We often refer to appreciation in the Cromford® Report. By appreciation we mean the percentage change in pricing over the last twelve months. However there are dozens of ways to measure the change in pricing and some work better than others. For a start we could use:

• average sales price
• median sales price
• average sales price per sq. ft.
• median sales price per sq. ft.

We prefer the average price per sq. ft. measure, but we then have to choose the period over which we will measure the $/SF. If we are talking about the whole of Greater Phoenix then we can pretty safely use a monthly period. However when we examine smaller areas, the lower sample size increases the volatility and we need to choose a longer time frame. Generally speaking, an annual average $/SF is stable enough to give us a realistic appreciation rate. The disadvantage is that it will not give much weight to recent price trends since these will be swamped by the other transactions that occurred over the twelve month period.

Here are the appreciation rates for the top-appreciating ZIP codes, based on the annual average $/SF for closed single family homes measured at the end of January 2016 versus the end of January 2015:

Rank	City	Zip	$/SF Jan 2015	$/SF Jan 2016	Appreciation Rate
1	Tonopah	85354	$73.14	$91.08	24.5%
2	Phoenix	85017	$69.67	$85.06	22.1%
3	Phoenix	85006	$125.96	$153.04	21.5%
4	Phoenix	85019	$70.43	$85.26	21.1%
5	Phoenix	85031	$63.38	$75.21	18.7%
6	Phoenix	85035	$73.43	$86.84	18.3%
7	Phoenix	85008	$113.62	$134.19	18.1%
8	Phoenix	85009	$68.38	$80.65	17.9%
9	Black Canyon City	85324	$88.10	$102.69	16.6%
10	Eloy	85131	$86.92	$101.29	16.5%
11	Wittmann	85361	$97.52	$113.12	16.0%
12	Phoenix	85033	$74.58	$85.94	15.2%
13	Phoenix	85021	$144.51	$165.47	14.5%
14	Glendale	85301	$73.74	$83.53	13.3%
15	Mesa	85210	$108.35	$122.46	13.0%
16	Phoenix	85051	$83.60	$94.47	13.0%
17	Youngtown	85363	$75.36	$84.80	12.5%
18	Phoenix	85015	$108.45	$121.99	12.5%
19	Glendale	85306	$102.57	$114.97	12.1%
20	Scottsdale	85251	$211.26	$236.39	11.9%

The vast majority of the fastest appreciating ZIP codes are on the west side of Central Avenue. The City of Phoenix is very diverse so we have 85017 appreciating by 22.1% while 85004 declined by 13.9% and 85045 declined by 3.5%. 

The allure of central Scottsdale gives 85251 a much higher appreciation rate than most the rest of City of Scottsdale. 85250 is just behind 85251 at 11.7%. Appreciation in 85254, 85255, 85258, 85259, 85260, 85262 and 85266 was below 3%. South Scottsdale (85257 managed a healthy 7.7%.