When we say their is a high number of listings does that apply to you??

Cromford Daily Observation - After 66 days of the year we have seen 23,071 new listings added to ARMLS within Greater Phoenix (all dwelling types). This represents 102 days of supply at the annual sales rate of 82,672. With 102 as the average we can spot the areas with relatively high or low numbers of new listings.

The unusually low supply areas are:

1. Glendale 85307 (44 days)
2. Glendale 85304 (65 days)
3. Phoenix 85053 (65 days)
4. Youngtown 85363 (65 days)
5. Avondale 85392 (67 days)
6. Phoenix 85043 (67 days)
7. Mesa 85204 (70 days)
8. Phoenix 85027 (71 days)
9. Phoenix 85019 (71 days)
10. El Mirage 85335 (72 days)

Here we see the usual suspects, mostly on the west side, where supply has been hard to find for a long time. The next 10 are also mostly on the west side with a couple of ZIP codes from West Mesa and Chandler 85226 thrown in.

The unusually high numbers of new listings are here:

1. Fort McDowell (549 days)
2. Aguila 85320 (320 days)
3. Arlington 85322 (275 days)
4. Casa Grande 85194 (263 days)
5. Scottsdale 85262 (211 days)
6. Rio Verde 85263 (210 days)
7. Scottsdale 85266 (197 days)
8. Phoenix 85003 (196 days)
9. Phoenix 85054 (185 days)
10. Carefree 85377 (173 days)
11. Paradise Valley 85253 (172 days)
12. Gold Canyon 85118 (171 days)
13. Morristown 85342 (170 days)
14. Scottsdale 85258 (164 days)
15. Congress 85332 (158 days)
16. Scottsdale 85255 (155 days)
17. Florence 85132 (147 days
18. Scottsdale 85259 (145 days)
19. Mesa 85215 (142 days)
20. Wickenburg 85390 (140 days)

Many sellers in the above 20 areas are struggling to compete with the large numbers of new listings relative to the usual sales rate. We expect to see a growing number of price reductions in these areas as listings fight for buyer's attention.

Getting into our peak season...what does that look like this year?

You can often tell how strong a year will be for the housing market in Greater Phoenix by looking at the date when the number of active listings hits a first half of the year peak. The earlier the better. Although we started the year with only 20,073 active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS) across all areas & types, they have jumped to 23,031 today, a rise of 15%. Last year we started at 22,604 and rose to 23,775 as of February 28, an increase of only 5%, having hit the peak on February 8. We are clearly seeing a much stronger supply trend thatn in early 2015.

The good news for sellers is that at least we seem to have hit the peak before March starts. Hitting the peak in week 8 is a neutral reading for Greater Phoenix as a whole. Last year we hit it in week 6, a positive reading. In 2014 we hit it in week 11, a negative reading. However the reading will be different if you examine smaller segments of the market.

The following cities appear to have already peaked for single family active listings, this being a positive indicator:

• El Mirage - Feb 6
• Laveen - Feb 8
• Tolleson - Feb 8
• Arizona City - Feb 10
• Phoenix - Feb 13
• Casa Grande - Feb 13
• Cave Creek - Feb 13
• Mesa - Feb 14
• Avondale - Feb 14
• Surprise - Feb 15
• Gilbert - Feb 20
• Glendale - Feb 20
• Buckeye - Feb 20
• Anthem - Feb 20
• Gold Canyon - Feb 20
• Maricopa - Feb 21
• Sun Lakes - Feb 21

On the other hand, the following are still appearing to make new highs:

• Scottsdale
• Paradise Valley
• Chandler
• Peoria
• Queen Creek
• Florence
• Tempe
• Sun City
• Apache Junction
• Sun City West
• Litchfield Park
• Fountain Hills

The active listing count in Scottsdale is still heading upwards, but not in all ZIP codes. Within Scottsdale, the increasing trend is strongest for 85255, 85259, 85262 and 85266.