You can often tell how strong a year will be for the housing market in Greater Phoenix by looking at the date when the number of active listings hits a first half of the year peak. The earlier the better. Although we started the year with only 20,073 active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS) across all areas & types, they have jumped to 23,031 today, a rise of 15%. Last year we started at 22,604 and rose to 23,775 as of February 28, an increase of only 5%, having hit the peak on February 8. We are clearly seeing a much stronger supply trend thatn in early 2015.
The good news for sellers is that at least we seem to have hit the peak before March starts. Hitting the peak in week 8 is a neutral reading for Greater Phoenix as a whole. Last year we hit it in week 6, a positive reading. In 2014 we hit it in week 11, a negative reading. However the reading will be different if you examine smaller segments of the market.
The following cities appear to have already peaked for single family active listings, this being a positive indicator:
- El Mirage - Feb 6
- Laveen - Feb 8
- Tolleson - Feb 8
- Arizona City - Feb 10
- Phoenix - Feb 13
- Casa Grande - Feb 13
- Cave Creek - Feb 13
- Mesa - Feb 14
- Avondale - Feb 14
- Surprise - Feb 15
- Gilbert - Feb 20
- Glendale - Feb 20
- Buckeye - Feb 20
- Anthem - Feb 20
- Gold Canyon - Feb 20
- Maricopa - Feb 21
- Sun Lakes - Feb 21
On the other hand, the following are still appearing to make new highs:
- Scottsdale
- Paradise Valley
- Chandler
- Peoria
- Queen Creek
- Florence
- Tempe
- Sun City
- Apache Junction
- Sun City West
- Litchfield Park
- Fountain Hills
The active listing count in Scottsdale is still heading upwards, but not in all ZIP codes. Within Scottsdale, the increasing trend is strongest for 85255, 85259, 85262 and 85266.
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