Market Update 4.4.2016 - Bidding Wars Around $200k

When we examine the number of active single family listings by price range, we can clearly see the long term shortage of affordable homes, the adequate supply in the mid-range and the glut of luxury homes for sale.

Price Range	Active (excluding UCB & CCBS) April 1, 2016	Year Ago	% Change	Comment	Days of Inventory
Under $100K	181	308	-41%		46
$100K-$125K	183	313	-42%		39
$125K-$150K	441	793	-44%	lowest level since 2005	40
$150K-$175K	760	1,060	-28%		52
$175K-$200K	1,134	1,188	-5%		73
$200K-$225K	987	917	+8%		80
$225K-$250K	1,144	1,084	+6%		87
$250K-$275K	912	812	+12%		96
$275K-$300K	1,144	1,031	+11%		115
$300K-$350K	1,633	1,555	+5%		130
$350K-$400K	1,438	1,439	0%		151
$400K-$500K	1,903	1,601	+19%	highest active count since Mar 2009	191
$500K-$600K	1,229	1,036	+19%	highest active count since Apr 2009	253
$600K-$800K	1,337	1,065	+26%	highest active count since Jun 2009	293
$800K-$1M	760	683	+11%	highest active count since Aug 2009	384
$1M-$1.5M	808	677	+19%	highest active count since Nov 2009	480
$1.5M-$2M	465	408	+14%	highest active count since Mar 2010	684
$2M-$3M	407	382	+7%	highest active count since Mar 2010	798
Over $3M	327	300	+9%	highest active count since Dec 2009	1,219

From $400,000 upwards we have more active listings than we have seen in the last 6 years, so buyers have plenty of choice and therefore negotiating power.

Below $200,000 we have a chronic shortage of homes available for purchase, and there is precious little to rent too. Here sellers have most of the negotiating power.

The median sales price for single family homes is at $230,000.

While above we looked at

 the supply by price range

​, below​

 we look at the demand for single family homes, by examining the number of listings under contract:

Price Range	Under Contract (including UCB & CCBS) April 1, 2016	Year Ago	% Change	Comment	Contract Ratio April 1, 2016	Contract Ratio March 1, 2016	Contract Ratio April 1, 2015
Under $100K	155	360	-57%	large decline	85.6	96.6	116.9
$100K-$125K	214	513	-58%	large decline	116.9	135.0	163.9
$125K-$150K	738	1,116	-34%	large decline	167.3	137.2	140.7
$150K-$175K	1,163	1,186	-2%		153.0	127.2	111.9
$175K-$200K	1,254	1,115	+12%		110.6	97.2	93.9
$200K-$225K	886	795	+11%		89.8	92.3	86.7
$225K-$250K	1,046	835	+25%	strong growth	91.4	73.5	77.0
$250K-$275K	725	598	+21%	strong growth	79.5	72.5	73.6
$275K-$300K	709	577	+23%	strong growth	62.0	62.6	56.0
$300K-$350K	899	723	+24%	strong growth	55.1	52.2	46.5
$350K-$400K	670	552	+21%	strong growth	46.6	39.8	38.4
$400K-$500K	723	600	+21%	strong growth	38.0	35.9	37.5
$500K-$600K	361	285	+27%	strong growth	29.4	25.0	27.5
$600K-$800K	309	297	+4%		23.1	21.6	27.9
$800K-$1M	170	115	+48%	strong growth	22.4	21.1	16.8
$1M-$1.5M	103	111	-7%		12.7	12.8	16.4
$1.5M-$2M	63	56	+13%		13.5	12.4	13.7
$2M-$3M	33	39	-15%		8.1	8.1	10.2
Over $3M	16	29	-45%	large decline	4.9	6.0	9.7

From $225,000 to $600,000 we have far more listings under contract that at this time last year. We also see very strong growth for the sector from $800,000 to $1 million.

From $175,000 to $225,000 and from $1.5 million to $2 million we have moderate increases in listings under contract of between 10% and 15%. For the sector from $1.5 to $2 million this goes a little way to mitigating the increase in supply.

The shortage of supply means the market under $175,000 is much smaller than last year, though the contract ratios are much higher between $125,000 and $175,000 showing there is no lack of buyer interest. Below $125,000 there is not much for sale and buyer interest is lower than last year too.

There are significant problems for sellers between $1 million and $1.5 million as well as for those over $2 million. This is because the number of listings under contract is down from last year at the same time that supply is much higher.The contract ratios have slipped compared with April 2015 and this signifies a large shift of negotiation power away from sellers and towards buyers. We should not be surprised to see weaker pricing trends in these price ranges as a result.