While the data below is from the Valley (as is pretty much all Cromford Report data), the trend is national, so I'm distributing statewide.
Cromford Daily Observation - Several reports have suggested that single female buyers are becoming a larger part of the housing market. This is one of the few demographic subjects where we have good data. When we examine deeds and affidavits of value, we cannot tell the age, race, religion, sexual preferences or much else about the buyer and seller. However we can tell if the property is being purchased by an unmarried, divorced or married man, unmarried, divorced or married woman or a married or unmarried couple, of whatever combination of sexes. These facts are mentioned right there in the wording of the deed. These days it is no longer valid to assume that a married couple is of opposite sex, but statistically speaking the numbers of same sex couples making home purchases is still small.
So can we see any trends in the numbers for Maricopa and Pinal counties? We decided to exclude distressed sales and focus only on normal sales, new homes and the flip part of a fix and flip.
1. The percentage of sales to single women, or married women purchasing as their sole and separate property has indeed increased as follows:
- 2011 - 22.5% of all purchases
- 2012 - 22.6%
- 2013 - 22.7%
- 2014 - 23.5%
- 2015 - 24.0%
- 2016 - 24.8% (to the end of September)
2. The percentage of sales to single men, or married men purchasing as their sole and separate property has also increased:
- 2011 - 32.3%
- 2012 - 33.7%
- 2013 - 34.4%
- 2014 - 34.2%
- 2015 - 34.9%
- 2016 - 34.9%
The growth for single men seems to have stalled since 2013 however, which is when the growth in single women buyers started to grow. There is a slightly faster growth for single women over single men, but it is not dramatically different. I would conclude that the reports about increasing numbers of single female buyers are valid.
3. The percentage of sales to couples has declined as follows:
- 2011 - 45.2%
- 2012 - 43.8%
- 2013 - 43.0%
- 2014 - 42.4%
- 2015 - 41.1%
- 2016 - 40.2%
This is a clear trend. Sales to couples remain the largest sector, but it is in a steep declining trend. This corresponds to a decline in birth rates that we have already commented on.
Another trend we observed is that couples with the wife mentioned first increased from 2.5% to 3.7% of purchases. Couples with the husband mentioned first dropped from 42.7% to 36.6%. Not quite sure what that tells us, but I am sure Cromford Report subscribers will have some interesting theories.
Two last points worth discussing, which is not mentioned, is the age of these single individuals. I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that this is solely a younger generation putting off marriage. We are also seeing a large increase in divorced and widowed buyers not remarrying prior to a new purchase. The digital age has allowed these older generations to connect on a social level much easier, thus by passing the old mindset of needing a partner. Even if coupled it is very common to see the baby boomers remain unmarried despite living their lives as such.
Now, the trillon dollar question is two fold. Will this continue and will the millennials come full circle and flock to suburbia once they realize carrying a car seat, groceries and kids up the stairs of their urban lofts is no longer conducive to their needs as a family. The delay of parenting hasn't yet answered whether the actual preferences of parents has changed including backyards, quality schools and safer neighborhoods. Time will tell....
My prediction? Over the short term (10 years) and on a macro scale we will see a massive constriction of growth to a select few cities with low cost of living, tech hub's and public transit i.e. Portland, Phoenix etc. On a micro level all cities will see an increase in renter demand, smaller sq/ft homes, urban concentration, decrease demand for large homes and golf course communities. In the long term (10+ years) I believe millennials will slowly begin to start families and their lifestyles will change. The coffee shops, art galleries and loft lifestyles will be changed in for suburban back yards, safer neighborhoods, better schools and single story homes.
Remember what you were "in to" 10 years ago? I would imagine it has changed drastically since then. Millennials grow tired of routine and stagnation. To think this lifestyle will be trending in a decade is short sighted in my opinion.
Until next time...
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