Cromford Daily Observation - The S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® report for the period April through June was published today and based on the month to month changes here is a ranking of the 20 cities covered in detail:
- Detroit 1.45%
- Seattle 1.45%
- Las Vegas 1.00%
- Minneapolis 0.98%
- Portland 0.88%
- Chicago 0.87%
- San Diego 0.85%
- Charlotte 0.82%
- Denver 0.79%
- Phoenix 0.77%
- Dallas 0.76%
- Boston- 0.74%
- Los Angeles 0.70%
- San Francisco 0.68%
- Washington DC 0.66%
- New York 0.61%
- Cleveland 0.58%
- Atlanta 0.57%
- Tampa 0.48%
- Miami 0.44%
Phoenix is right there in the middle of the pack, but well below the national average of 0.95%.
Looking at the year over year changes, here is the ranking:
- Seattle 13.39%
- Portland 8.16%
- Dallas 7.66%
- Denver 7.59%
- Detroit 7.56%
- Las Vegas 7.25%
- San Diego 7.08%
- Tampa 6.88%
- Boston 6.24%
- San Francisco 6.06%
- Charlotte 6.03%
- Phoenix 5.79%
- Minneapolis 5.70%
- Los Angeles 5.61%
- Atlanta 5.23%
- Miami 4.96%
- New York 3.88%
- Chicago 3.25%
- Washington DC 3.07%
- Cleveland 2.86%
Phoenix is close to the middle again and almost exactly at the national average of 5.77%.
So in the longer term view Phoenix is performing very close to the national average, and slightly below average over the short term. Nothing very exciting there. Seattle is now the runaway spot for high appreciation.
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The long term average appreciation in Maricopa County and I suspect in much of the State has been 5% per year. What's nice about that figure is that you can quote it without pretending to have a crystal ball; beats inflation; but doesn't smack of a over-heating market.
And it's a 'sustainable' figure - enough appreciation that the average purchaser who needs financing can expect to recover buying and selling expenses in most cases within 3 years. Real estate should be a 3 to 5 year decision to make sense for most.
We can live with 5%.
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