Make sure you compare apples to apples when judging peak 06' vs 18'

We still see occasional claims that pricing is back to the levels during the bubble years but we refute these claims. We still have quite a long way to go in most segments of the market, with just a handful of special exceptions.

First of all, people make the mistake of using median sales prices. This is NOT a fair way to compare 2018 with 2006. In 2006 the median single-family house size across Greater Phoenix was far smaller (1,741 sq. ft.) than the median house size in 2018 (1,886 sq. ft.). That is a difference of 8%, so the median sales price in 2018 would need to exceed that in 2006 by at least 8% before we could realistically claim pricing had recovered to 2006 levels.

It is also not fair to use monthly average price per sq. ft. because this is a volatile measure and if one month pops up the next may drop back down again. We can call a recovery only when prices are consistently higher than they used to be.

We need to use a long term measure and one that incorporates the change in home sizes. For this reason we like the annual average price per square foot. With this measure in mind we can examine the pricing by ZIP code for single-family-homes. 

(Sample charts for the NE Valley can be found below - MikeB)

The following ZIP codes have an annual average price per square foot for single-family homes that exceeds the maximum achieved in 2005-2009.

1. Phoenix 85006 - $195.45 versus the peak of $192.44 in July 2007
2. Eloy 85131 - $114.80 versus the peak of $111.08 in December 2007
3. Scottsdale 85251 - $271.92 versus the peak of $252.02 in September 2007
4. Scottsdale 85257 - $202.07 versus the peak of $193.68 in November 2006.

The following are within 5% of recovery:

1. Phoenix 85008 - $168.93 versus the peak of $177.47 in April 2007
2. Phoenix 85013 - $197.84 versus the peak of $207.02 in April 2007
3. Phoenix 85014 - $203.29 versus the peak of $212.21 in December 2007
4. Scottsdale 85250 - $240.93 versus the peak of $251.14 in February 2007
5. Tempe 85281 - $184.28 versus the peak of $193.90 in January 2007

The following are within 10% of recovery:

1. Phoenix 85003 - $253.68 versus the peak of $273.60 in February 2008
2. Phoenix 85015 - $147.76 versus the peak of $160.91 in April 2007
3. Phoenix 85018 - $294.17 versus the peak of $315.83 in April 2007
4. Mesa 85202 - $146.49 versus the peak of $159.38 in October 2006
5. Mesa 85204 - $141.33 versus the peak of $155.00 in November 2006
6. Chandler 85224 - $158.38 versus the peak of $175.41 in September 2006
7. Tempe 85282 - $157.25 versus the peak of $166.70 in August 2006
8. Chandler 85286 - $154.05 versus the peak of $168.13 in September 2007 (note that this ZIP code did not exist in 2006)

All the other ZIP codes are adrift of their peak levels by more than 10%. Looking at a few of the largest in terms of the number of existing homes, we see

1. Phoenix 85032 - $165.37 versus the peak of $189.08 (12% below)
2. Phoenix 85041 - $111.21 versus the peak of $146.24 (24% below)
3. Mesa 85207 - $161.92 versus the peak of $201.16 (19% below)
4. Chandler 85225 - $151.67 versus the peak of $171.16 (11% below)
5. Gilbert 85234 - $147.71 versus the peak of $178.08 (17% below)
6. Chandler 85249 - $148.14 versus the peak of $182.04 (19% below)
7. Scottsdale 85255 - $281.60 versus the peak of $325.31 (13% below)
8. Scottsdale 85262 - $269.89 versus the peak of $374.69 (28% below)
9. Paradise Valley 85253 - $357.25 versus the peak of $479.21 (25% below)
10. Scottsdale 85254 - $204.45 versus the peak of $237.63 (14% below)
11. Glendale 85308 - $147.51 versus the peak of $178.63 (17% below)
12. Buckeye 85326 - $105.00 versus the peak of $153.92 (32% below)
13. Goodyear 85338 - $122.49 versus the peak of $167.59 (27% below)
14. Peoria 85345 - $126.58 versus the peak of $156.04 (19% below)
15. Surprise 85374 - $137.52 versus the peak of $168.66 (18% below)
16. Sun City West 85375 - $134.07 versus the peak of $154.94 (13% below)
17. Peoria 85383 - $147.54 versus the peak of $187.56 (21% below)

The strongest recovery has been in Scottsdale 85251 where the average $/SF is now 8% higher than during the bubble.

More generally, locations close to the intersection of the 101 and 202 in Tempe have recovered better than average, as well as several areas north and east of Central Phoenix.