This adage has been on the forefront of Realtor's conversations for years. Very few justify this with provable data. So let's do just that...
Trying to determine how many buyers in Maricopa County come from California is slightly complicated. We need to exclude many banks and companies like Opendoor who are headquartered in CA.
If we look only at the people who buy as individuals or couples, then we see significant growth over the last year. The annual purchase rate for people with Californian addresses is up 23% to 4,391. It is also up 43% from 2 years ago.
A similar (and slightly more pronounced) situation exists in Pinal County, where purchases by Californian couples or individuals are up 30% from last year and up 47% from 2 years ago. The absolute numbers are smaller however with the annual rate at 655. This is in line with the relative sizes of the Maricopa and Pinal markets.
We conclude there is a lot of truth in the rumor that more people are moving sideways from California to Central Arizona. In doing so they can often get 2 to 3 times as much home for the same money or release equity while same-sizing. Their property taxes will also be significantly lower.
The favorite locations for 2018's Californian buyers to originate are as follows:
- San Diego
- San Jose
- Los Angeles
- San Francisco
- Irvine
- Huntington Beach
- Corona
- Riverside
- Fremont
- Sacramento
- Anaheim
- Long Beach
- Temecula
- Mission Viejo
- Rancho Cucamonga
- Chula Vista
- Carlsbad
- Oceanside
- Murietta
- Simi Valley
This is an interesting list since you might assume the larger population segment (Los Angeles and San Fran) would have the highest number however both San Diego and San Jose have overall larger numbers, therefore, a signifigantly higher percentage of the population.
The potential inter-state movement here from California is vast and the current numbers represent only a trickle, given the total size of the Californian population. This means the number could grow substantially. For instance, even if the number doubled it would have limited immediate impact to CA but would show up quickly in the demand impact here in Maricopa. I personally anticipate this to have a snowball impact on CA as when they finally do realize the "smart" money has left they will have to make drastic changes economically which will only increase the exodus. They'll be caught chasing their tail unfortunately and AZ will be an obvious alternative pending the options in AZ maintain their appeal.
Regardless of your political stance, or opinion, on the direction of CA it clearly is causing movement. The benefit of this influx depends on your stance as well. However, from a strictly real estate perspective if statistics 101 is applicable and all other factors equal the increase in demand is clearly good for us here in AZ.
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Side Note: Californians have long been the largest source of Arizona homebuyers outside of Arizonans. This is nothing new. The point of measurement is to gauge if this process is increasing overall in relation to the normal flow. The Cromford Daily Observation has the metrics to confirm the rumor! The number is increasing!!
This happens for several reasons from what we can see in interviews and questionnaires.
- Increase in Taxes (This combines personal, property, sales etc.)
- Aging population - A change in life cycle (kids move out, retirement, health) create the ability to move.
- Employment - Growth in certain sectors among a mobile population. Change in remote work options etc.
- Weather - Mudslides, Wild Fires, Smog,
This is not an all-encompassing list but among the leaders in why many are making, and have the ability, to make the move. Since these major factors seem to only be increasing we can safely assume so will the number of people who leave.
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