Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.
Here's what it looks like Valleywide in the most currently post Cromford Market Index chart:
The table below shows the Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities:
In one way, this is more favorable to sellers than last week - there is only one city deteriorating for them. However the average CMI changed by +7.9% which is slightly below the +8.4% we saw seven days ago.
Either way, life got even more difficult for buyers and the negotiation advantage favors sellers to an extreme degree.
It is notable that Buckeye and Maricopa saw the largest increases, both of which have a relatively large supply of homes for sale. However their supplies are dropping at an alarming rate, probably fueled by very low interest rates which makes home more affordable even at higher purchase prices..
The stock market is having a dreadful time with the the S&P 500 entering a bear market this week. This kind of event usually means the top end of the housing market loses a lot of demand. 178.8 is still a very high CMI for Paradise Valley but it would not be a surprise if this fell further over the next few weeks. In PV supply is well below the seasonal norm, but it can hardly be described as scarce and the Cromford® Demand Index shows a clear declining trend.
Elsewhere supply is very tight and demand is holding up with sellers in Tempe, Avondale, Glendale, Phoenix and Scottsdale seeing double digit percentage rises in their CMI.
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