Covid Impact & the Turnaround

Although sales counts are still way below normal, we are seeing a strong recovery in the number of listings under contract this week.

Demand established a bottom over the past 4 weeks and is now rising again. A break of the 10,000 listing count is a clear positive signal that buyers are still very interested in Greater Phoenix housing.

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Properties going 'Under Contract' is our best indication of the strength / pace of recovery. As the State 're-opens' it will be most interesting to monitor this metric. 

What we might expect is that pent-up demand will cause that 2020 trend line to bypass 2019 going into the summer months. In other words, hopefully we'll see the strongest sales in the upcoming summer months ever. 

For reference, the chart below shows ARMLS sales by month over the last 10 years. Keep in mind closings represent properties that went under contract 30-45 days earlier. 

We see historically how the Phoenix Metro isn't as 'seasonal' as some might expect. For example, November closings (written in the heat of September / October) are off about 30% from the height of closing in May (written in the Valley 'high season' of March / April). Yet, it's very much a year-round market.

The point is this year, assuming pent-up demand, we might speculate this differential could be all but erased. 

We'll see.