We saw very weak new listings numbers in the first half of 2020, down 5% from 2019 for the first quarter and down 14% for the second quarter, across all areas & types. However the third quarter has got off to a blazing start and new listings are up 11% compared to the same 4 weeks in 2019. This extra supply will certainly help dollar volume and sales counts, but so far it has not done very much to raise the level of active listings. This is because active listings are getting acceptable offers even faster than before, meaning the higher arrival rate of new listings is balanced by listings going under contract faster and being removed from active inventory.
This stronger trend in new listings is accelerating and over the last week we have seen 17% more new listings than during the same period in 2019. If this trend continues then we should see inventory start to grow. We normally expect to see inventory grow between August and November every year, so this would not be very surprising.
Today we see slightly more inventory (without a contract) for single-family homes than we did a week ago in the following major cities:
- Avondale
- Cave Creek
- Chandler
- Gilbert
- Maricopa
- Mesa,
- Phoenix
- Queen Creek
- Tempe
However single-family inventory without a contract is still falling in:
- Buckeye
- Fountain Hills
- Glendale
- Goodyear
- Paradise Valley
- Peoria
- Scottsdale
- Surprise
These trends suggest that the Cromford® Market Index will continue to rise, but at a slowing pace over the next few weeks.
Long-term rental listings are arriving at a slow pace - 2,181 for the last 4 weeks across all areas & types. This is down 11% compared to the same time last year.
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While we welcome the new listing improvement, to keep things in perspective, the year-over-year Active Listing totals remain 27% lower.
So, this is really 'early bird' info that isn't showing up yet in our monthly Listing Activity charts. And, as mentioned above, inventory continues flying off the shelves faster than it's being 'restocked'.
Still, this is a welcome talking point - 'more listings year-over-year these past 4 weeks in 9 or our 17 Valley cities'.
A more refined point is that so far, the supply / demand imbalance in the NE Valley luxury corridor is showing no improvement yet (except Cave Creek).
May the improving inventory 'trend' continue and broaden - that the listing gap begins to close and the market normalizes some as we continue into the second half of this year.