Once again, here is our table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
We described last week's table as approaching absurdity. Well this week we got closer still. The average increase in the CMI over the past month is 56%, up from 54% last week.
All the cities are running with the bulls, now that the luxury market is performing again. Paradise Valley is the only one of the 17 with a CMI less than 200 and even here we saw a movement in favor of sellers of 65%.
The inner west valley leads the table with Glendale and Avondale. How do you achieve a CMI of 572.7? You allow your single-family active listings without a contract to fall to less than 30, when the long term average is 357 and 126 homes are closing a month. Glendale has just 136 single-family homes available, compared the long term average of 928 and a monthly sales rate of 422.
The CMI is at an all-time record high in Avondale and Glendale, meaning they are in a more extreme situation than during the real estate bubble of 2005. The remaining 15 cities have not reached that point yet.
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To decode the graph above....
Green arrow up - favors sellers. Demand exceeds supply that's approaching unprecedented. For perspective, a CMI score of 100 represents a relative balance between supply and demand.
The utility of the CMI is it's accuracy as a short term market predictor.
As mentioned above, we're reaching extremes in lack of supply relative to demand not seen since the real estate bubble of 2005. The dynamics, of course, are completely different e.g. no liar loans; an equity market, etc.
Looking at Listings Under Contract, we do see some easing. Hard to say how much of that is seasonal heat or sheer lack of supply to meet the demand. At a minimum we see Listings Under Contract 13% ahead of last year (12,555 in 2020 versus 10,912 in 2019).
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