Appreciation Update - Still #1

 Cromford Daily Observation - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published today. They cover home sales during the period June to August 2020.

Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:

1. San Diego +1.90%
2. Cleveland +1.64%
3. Phoenix +1.54%
4. Los Angeles +1.36%
5. Boston 1.33%
6. Tampa +1.27%
7. Washington +1.15%
8. Seattle 1.14%
9. Las Vegas +1.13%
10. Portland +1.10%
11. Miami +1.08%
12. Dallas +0.98%
13. New York +0.95%
14. Charlotte +0.87%
15. San Francisco +0.83%
16. Denver +0.72%
17. Minneapolis +0.68%
18. Atlanta +0.50%
19. Chicago +0.41%

The national average was +1.06% so Phoenix home prices increased at a much higher rate than the national average, and rose from 36th to 3rd place compared with last month.

These are very strong price rises for a single month and show the earlier CoreLogic home price forecasts to be wildly inaccurate. These forecasts will have to be revised upwards substantially over the next few months.

The year over year comparisons are below:

1. Phoenix 9.0%
2. Seattle 7.8%
3. San Diego 7.1%
4. Cleveland 6.4%
5. Tampa 6.4%
6. Los Angeles 6.4%
7. Charlotte 6.3%
8. Portland 5.8%
9. Minneapolis 5.4%
10. Washington 5.4%
11. Boston 5.4%
12. Denver 5.0%
13. Atlanta 4.9%
14. Miami 4.6%
15. Las Vegas 4.4%
16. Dallas 4.0%
17. San Francisco 4.0%
18. New York 2.7%
19. Chicago 1.2%

The national average was 5.4%, up from 4.8% and showing a rapidly rising trend.. Phoenix remains well out in front on the annual measurement.

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When annual appreciation exceeds the long term average of around 5% it's particularly noteworthy e.g. Phoenix 9%! 

As always, keep in mind this is broad brush and inherently dated - 3-months old. This is why the commentary suggests These forecasts will have to be revised upwards substantially over the next few months.

It will be interesting to see what the combination of a national election followed by the holiday season will have. Maybe we'll have a little better idea after next week, though the dynamics we're seeing in the market - demand outpacing supply - will no doubt continue, albeit with some seasonal adjustments i.e. perhaps a bit more inventory; perhaps some tempering in demand. But we'll see soon enough!