New supply tends to be thin on the ground between mid November and the end of December, though we are seeing a higher rate of arrival than we did in 2019 and 2018. This increased rate is not enough to compensate for the elevated demand and the number of homes available for sale is declining in the vast majority of areas.
We have had so little supply for so long, it is easy to forget what normal is like. Here are a few examples of what is available compared with the long term average:
| Market Segment | Active excluding UCB & CCBS | Long Term Average | Difference |
| All Areas & Types | 8,257 | 27,009 | -69% |
| Greater Phoenix | 7,616 | 21,678 | -65% |
| Greater Phoenix Single-Family Detached | 5,564 | 16,850 | -67% |
| Greater Phoenix Townhomes | 643 | 1.385 | -54% |
| Greater Phoenix Apartment Style | 752 | 1,298 | -42% |
| Greater Phoenix Twin / Duplex | 62 | 127 | -51% |
| Greater Phoenix Patio Home | 109 | 286 | -62% |
| Greater Phoenix Mobile Home | 464 | 679 | -32% |
| Greater Phoenix Loft Style | 17 | 39 | -56% |
| Greater Phoenix Modular / Manufactured | 5 | 16 | -69% |
| Single-Family Detached Homes in: | |||
| Phoenix | 1,193 | 4.469 | -73% |
| Mesa | 390 | 1,587 | -75% |
| Scottsdale | 809 | 2,290 | -65% |
| Peoria | 245 | 886 | -72% |
| Queen Creek / San Tan Valley | 196 | 958 | -80% |
| Avondale | 56 | 349 | -84% |
| Paradise Valley | 195 | 325 | -40% |
| Fountain Hills | 83 | 250 | -67% |
| Cave Creek | 105 | 259 | -59% |
| Buckeye | 151 | 487 | -69% |
| Maricopa | 115 | 415 | -72% |
| Chandler | 196 | 977 | -80% |
| Glendale | 168 | 908 | -81% |
| Gilbert | 179 | 1,109 | -84% |
| Surprise | 243 | 907 | -73% |
| Goodyear | 133 | 552 | -76% |
| Tempe | 99 | 293 | -66% |
| Gold Canyon | 79 | 209 | -62% |
| Sun Lakes | 36 | 150 | -76% |
| Arizona City | 20 | 107 | -81% |
| Tolleson | 11 | 170 | -94% |
| Litchfield Park | 57 | 198 | -71% |
| Sun City West | 82 | 292 | -72% |
| Laveen | 45 | 232 | -81% |
| Anthem | 27 | 211 | -87% |
| Apache Junction | 40 | 195 | -79% |
| Casa Grande | 81 | 330 | -75% |
| El Mirage | 20 | 150 | -87% |
| Sun City | 115 | 301 | -62% |
| Florence | 43 | 160 | -73% |
| Coolidge | 34 | 98 | -65% |
The housing market is short of everything, everywhere.
The dwelling types that are least scarce are mobile homes & apartment-style condos. Geographically, the most expensive areas are down less but are still massively short of supply compared with average. This is exacerbated by the unusually high demand for high-end homes
Tolleson wins the prize for the lowest supply compared with its long term average. Anthem and El Mirage are runners-up...
__________________
The above is a great reference I give my client's for perspective, particularly for potential buyers. One has to consider what could change the disparity between supply and demand:
Demand: Factors that could dampen demand? Higher interest rates. Loss of affordability. Other geopolitical possibilities? Certainly. But unlikely.
Clearly, Supply continues to lose ground relative to demand. The current 7721 Active listings in ARMLS should break the record low of 8342 set in April of 2005!Supply: On the supply side it's also difficult to see where the inventory part of the equation changes much. Builders are building. Homes.com says there are 3211 new homes for Sale in Maricopa County. However, FlexMLS shows only 95 available active new homes (built in 2020). The total current available 'Active' inventory excluding UCB is a shocking 7721, even though there were 10,420 new listings in October.
For your Holiday Season success,
No comments:
Post a Comment