Monday, November 29, 2021

Here comes the cooling, right on schedule...as predicted.

 On November 11, the average closed price per square foot across all areas & types slipped below 100% of the average list price per square foot for the first time since March 18. We waited a while to report in order to ensure this was not a blip. The percentage on November 11 was 99.99% and it has now dropped to 99.92%. Not a blip.


This signals that the market is cooling slightly. However, the long-term average is 97.25% and prices still tend to rise when the percentage is above 97%. So this should not be taken as a sign that sales prices may reverse direction any time soon. If it were to drop below the long-term average then we would have good reason to become more pessimistic about prices.
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'The market is cooling slightly' based on the 'new' list-to-sales-price trend that sellers, on average, are taking a slight discount, which equals fewer bidding wars.
This graph clearly shows the trend since Q2, using Scottsdale as our example:
100 = full price on the horizontal access / List Price / Sold Price Ratio
image.png
Takeaway: 
Sellers are still getting the better part of their appreciated prices.
Buyers should be finding more choices.
All good.

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