Here comes the slowing...

 Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities.

Over the last month, 2 of the 17 cities have improved for sellers while 15 have deteriorated. The market strongly favors sellers, but the trend is now moving slowly towards a more balanced market. The average change in the CMI over the past month is -9.5% whereas it was -6.4% last week. The cooling of the market continues to accelerate, but it will take several months before reaching normal at the current rate of change.

___________________

Those red down arrows are quite telling - month-over-month supply-demand ratio trend favoring buyers in most Valley cities, albeit still a long way to a Cromford Market Index closer to the 100 point of balance.

However, the devil's always in the details...

By Price Range: 

The overall picture shows an 18% year-over-year increase in active inventory:

However, if we break it out by price range we find that the real increase in available inventory is in the mid-range $500 - $1M - up 48%!:

By contrast we don't yet see a significant change in the low end... 

...or high end:

Location, location, location: 

As we would expect, the cities with higher average prices actually have less inventory at the moment, comparing year-over-year and competition remains fierce - note 30% less inventory in PV:

11% less inventory in Scottsdale:

However, more choice in the SE and West Valley cities:

Takeaways ~ Mid-range ($500-$1M) buyers have significantly more choices (*depending on where you look), while low and high end inventory is about the same year-over-year.

*By location: There are roughly 20% more mid-range choices in the SE and W Valley, while Scottsdale & Fountain Hills have about 10% more mid-range Actives. Cave Creek/Carefree are about the same (year-over-year mid-range).

Why? 

We can speculate these factors play large:

• Investor activity has slowed in the mid-range e.g. there are twice the SFD rentals today than last year.
• Higher interest rates - buyers w/ 20% down have lost at least 10% buying power in the last year.

Bottom line: Demand is in the normal range; lack of supply to meet demand continues to be the driver e.g. this Scottsdale Supply/Demand gauge is typical: