Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities
This table tells us that the cooling market trend is still accelerating, with an average CMI decline of -34% which compares unfavorably with -33% last week. Demand continues to fall in most areas but the dominant effect is now the rise in supply, with new listings arriving at a pace that is well above average. Paradise Valley has seen little change in its supply over the last month, though demand is still trending lower. At -18% it is the top performing city in the table.
The largest declines are to be found in Avondale, Gilbert, Cave Creek and Chandler, all down more than 40% since this time last month.
We now have 4 cities below 200 and at 143.6, Buckeye is not far from a balanced market between 90 and 110. Maricopa and Queen Creek are racing towards that zone too.
The upper end of the market is slowing, but to a lesser degree than the mid-range between $400,000 and $1 million. This effect is placing Fountain Hills and Scottsdale at the top of the table.
Supply below $400,000 remains very low and that segment of the market remains strong.
It's good to see the Cromford folks noting what we have been hammering for the last couple of weeks - the bifurcation, or really trifurcation of the market.
Specifically, that the market is slowing to a lesser degree than the mid range ($400 - $1M) and even less so in the upper end ($1M plus).
That said, they make a noteworthy distinction in the below $400K market - that while that below $400K market is what's been dragging down the year-over-year Under Contract stats - a whopping 52% when taken by itself - it's still a strong market segment for lack of inventory (see **Days Inventory below) ~
Listings Under Contract ~
Under $400K down a whopping 52% y-o-y ~ no doubt most heavily impacted by rising rates.
$400K to $1M market is up 23% as of week 23 (week 23 starts June 5th) ~
$1M up market is up 12% ~
Back to the below $400K market - the Daily Observation makes the point the below $400K market remains strong for lack of inventory.
That's manifest most plainly looking at the Days Inventory, where we see about a third of the Days Inventory below $400K versus mid range $400K - $1M:
Days Inventory ~
**Below $400K Day Inventory = 15.3 (still just over a 2 week supply!) ~
$400K - $1M Days Inventory = 43.2 ~
Above $1M Days Inventory = 85.3 Having less than a 3 month supply in the upper end is remarkable!
Sellers market duly noted, the common denominator is Days Inventory is trending up in all price range sectors.
Takeaway ~
While inventory is trending up even as demand trends down, the higher the price range the slower the slowing.
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