This table is quite startling - the market balance is now swinging quickly towards sellers, yet this does not seem to be reflected in market commentary in the general media. This shows the advantage of measuring the housing market every day, rather than once a month. One month ago, the situation looked bleak for sellers. The average CMI had fallen by -4.3% in the month prior to December 1.
I thought for sure it would take a huge interest rate reduction into the 4% range or a screeching halt of new inventory to see this type of improvement. We are certainly feeling this improvement. Mostly in cities such as Paradise Valley and Chandler. PV would be most predictable as seasonal demand is high in the winter. Chandler on the other hand was substantial at almost 30%!!! This is showing up in both declines in new listings AND massive increases in showing activity across all price ranges. Great news for sellers!
Today we see an average CMI improvement of +16.3%.
It is not just that supply has been falling rapidly, we are now seeing stronger demand. It being December, this may easily go unnoticed by those not paying close attention, but the numbers do not lie. Relative to November, December's demand numbers are improving. If this trend rolls over into January and continues, we could see a much more positive picture during the first quarter than we expected just 3 weeks ago.
The swing in favor of sellers is most noticeable in Paradise Valley, Avondale, Chandler, Tempe, Mesa, Glendale, Gilbert and Phoenix. Only Goodyear has yet to get with the program. Scottsdale is late to the party but is starting to swing over the last week.
We now have 5 cities in the seller's market zone over 110, 5 cities in the balanced zone between 90 and 110 and 7 in the buyer's market zone under 90.
.gif)
No comments:
Post a Comment