Demand volume matches 2007 : (

 Cromford Daily Observation ~ The number of listings under contract (8,238) at week 23 is the lowest we have recorded for that time of the year since 2007.

At no point so far in 2024 has the count managed to claw its way above the miserable totals for 2023.

Now 2007 was an awful year with the market stalled by the certain knowledge that house prices were about to collapse. We are not in that situation in 2024, but buyer enthusiasm for resale homes is still very low indeed. To put 8,238 into perspective, the total for week 23 of 2011 was well over 21,000.

If the 30-year fixed mortgage rate finally tumbles well below 7% then things are likely to improve. 

I recommend watching the turquoise line above to see if it can creep above the purple line over the next couple of months.

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That 'recommendation' above to track Listings Under Contract, is one I would underscore.

Listings Under Contract are our best 'finger-on-the-pulse' for measuring the demand trend - and that would be because Sales per se, actually were put under contract a month or two earlier. 

The bifurcation is self-evident when we filter by price. 

For example, here's what that same year-over-year Listings Under Contract looks like over $1M ~

This is why you want to filter by price. The trendline above is flipped from the trendline below - Listings Under Contract below $1M ~

Below shows the trend sans the upper end (up to $1M) ~

A single graphic illustration of bifurcation over the last 8 years can be shown in the graph below, where you can 'see' the current increasing strength of the higher end relative to low-mid range. This chart also evidences the dramatic increase in prices, which, of course, goes a long way toward explaining the softer current low-mid range market, especially when appreciation is compounded by the increase in mortgage rates ~