Jul 26 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities ~
At first sight this looks bad. We have only 2 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, half as many as last week. Avondale and Queen Creek have reversed course leaving Scottsdale and Maricopa alone. 15 have declined, so the vast majority have deteriorated for sellers. However most of these only fell by a small percentage. Former high-fliers Tempe, Gilbert and Chandler show the biggest falls.
After a second look, things look a lot better. The average change in CMI over the past month is -5.4%, a smaller fall than the -6.7% we saw last week. The rate of decline has definitely changed direction and this is a positive sign for the market. Things are deteriorating more slowly.
9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though that looks unlikely to last much longer for Tempe and Gilbert. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets. 3 cities still remain over 140.
One of the largest markets by dollar volume (Scottsdale) has improved by 6% over the last month. Given that we are in the middle of the slowest season for luxury homes, this is another encouraging sign for that market.
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Interesting week, right. 'Multiple' new forms to incorporate (pun intended). Lots of uncertainty. All of us looking for the silver bullet talk tracks that will give us confidence moving forward. We speculate on winning strategies. You see the evidence that your leadership is distilling the best information available for education and re-education with all hands on deck to facilitate managing these changes.
There is the controversial term from the Chinese that Crisis is a dangerous opportunity. Seems fitting.
I believe Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty is positioning itself as the shining light on the hill.
My personal opinion:
To the extent we can articulate to our sellers the efficacy of offering co-broke, we sustain relative normalcy and the 'sand in the gears' will clearly be most easily mitigated. With decades of historical precedent, I believe it remains the best opportunity for successful outcomes for our clients. I believe the key is being able to articulate why it has worked so well for all parties. More on that to come.
Conversely, the thought of our buyers having to come to the closing table with cash to compensate us for our work on their behalf is the choke point of resistance. We're trying to be like the duck that looks so serene moving across the water, but paddling like crazy below the surface to find safe harbor. Let's be honest, this is a tough nut to crack.
We don't have a crystal ball. All we can do is speculate on how this is going to play out and plan accordingly.
It will be an evolution.
It will likely 'cull the herd'...with less competition from those that don't adapt and fall by the wayside being in part, the opportunity.
Adapt and prosper:
As we traverse these uncharted waters the starting place for successfully adapting is the 'talk track' within us.
This video helped me today. I trust it will you as well:
'Our words are a tool for the mind to create a reality.' Dr. Joe Dispenza
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