Listing Success Rate - Much More Accurate Than Average Days On Market

Listing Success Rate is one of the most revealing and reliable housing market indicators but is rarely measured other than by the Cromford® Report. In contrast average days on market is comparatively dull and meaningless yet measured and reported almost everywhere. We recommend ignoring average days on market. It might be interesting for a specific single listing, but the statistical average reveals little useful information about the state of the market.

Our month-to-date listing success rate is 71% which is nothing special, but at least it is above the long-term average of 68%. But It is also below last year at this time when we measured 75%. This tells us that the market is close to normal and not improving much. However we may not feel like it as close to normal, because between 2011 and 2022 the market stayed above normal for almost the entire period. Normal feels much worse than 2011-2022. Also we have not had much experience of normal in the last 24 years. It has mostly been better or worse than normal.

Those who were active between 2006 and 2011 will realize how much worse it was back then, when the listing success rate stayed below 61% and often fell below 40%. Far more listings failed than succeeded for a full 5 year period.

We can also see how unusually strong the market was from 2020 to 2022 when the listing success rate exceeded 90% for long periods.

Studying the data reveals that listing success is generally much higher than average for the lower end of the market and much lower for the higher end. Right now the success rate for listings of $2 million and above is 50.6% while that for those priced between $250,000 and $400,00 is around 79%. However properties priced extremely cheaply, under $200,000, have a low success rate because there is usually some serious disadvantages causing them to be priced so far below the median home price. Today we measure a 56% success rate for these.

Be careful of paying too much attention to listing success rate when you are looking at a small sample size, such as a single ZIP code or small city. These numbers fluctuate wildly and provide little useful information. The same caution applies to a any small area such as a subdivision. You need a decent amount of data to apply statistical principles.

Over the past 90 days we can rank the large cities as follows:

1. Buckeye 79.5%
2. Peoria 77.9%
3. Chandler 77.7%
4. Queen Creek 77.1%
5. Gilbert 75.9%
6. Avondale 75.9%
7. Glendale 73.7%
8. Maricopa 74.5%
9. Surprise 72.3%
10. Mesa 72.6%
11. Fountain Hills 72.2%
12. Tempe 71.9%
13. Goodyear 71.2%
14. Phoenix 71.1%
15. Scottsdale 65.7%
16. Cave Creek 60.8%
17. Paradise Valley 39.3%