Thursday, December 18, 2014

30 Day Luxury Jump - Russ Lyon Dominating Once Again.

My Cromford Report Observation ~
December 17 - 
The last 30 days have seen a lot of expensive homes closed. We have seen 28 sales for $2,000,000 or more, of which 8 were for more than $3,000,000.
In the same period in 2013 we only saw 15 such sales. Only 4 were for more than $3,000,000.
Clearly the super luxury market is continuing to do very well compared with the last several years. This is powered by lenders' desires to write jumbo loans and an economy that is returning excellent profits for companies and investors.
______________________________
Chris T Comment: Todays the 18th and I get 29 closed over $2M from November 17 to today. Of those 58 sides, RLSIR had 23 (40%) - 10 of the sales and 13 of the listings. GO TEAM!!!
Closed Since Nov 17
Sold PriceCityZip
$9,750,000Scottsdale85255
$5,700,000Scottsdale85262
$4,700,000Scottsdale85255
$3,750,000Paradise Valley85253
$3,550,000Scottsdale85255
$3,275,000Flagstaff86001
$3,200,000Phoenix85018
$3,200,000Scottsdale85251
$2,775,000Scottsdale85255
$2,738,250Paradise Valley85253
$2,724,700Paradise Valley85253
$2,675,000Scottsdale85266
$2,600,000Paradise Valley85253
$2,600,000Scottsdale85254
$2,550,000Scottsdale85266
$2,502,730Paradise Valley85253
$2,500,000Scottsdale85260
$2,500,000Scottsdale85266
$2,450,000Paradise Valley85253
$2,400,000Scottsdale85262
$2,300,000Scottsdale85255
$2,300,000Scottsdale85255
$2,300,000Scottsdale85262
$2,300,000Scottsdale85254
$2,300,000Paradise Valley85253
$2,265,000Paradise Valley85253
$2,050,000Phoenix85016
$2,000,000Scottsdale85262

Hey Millennials'....Buy a House. Here's Why.

Does anyone remember the days when 5% annual appreciation was considered really good?  These days it appears that some consumers now perceive anything under 10% as horrible, and reason enough to keep renting.  As our market returns to normal it may be beneficial to help future homeowners, specifically the millennial generation, visualize where they could be in 5 years with a “horrendous” 4% appreciation rate.  For the following example, we chose a $175,000 purchase with 3% down since it falls in line with where a first-time home buyer might start. 
Date1/1/20151/1/20161/1/20171/1/20181/1/20191/1/2020
Purchase Price $175,000 Future Value @ 4% Annual Appreciation$182,000$189,280$196,851$204,725$212,914
3.5% Down Payment $    6,125 Beginning Loan Balance @ 4% Interest$166,153$163,069$159,858$156,517$153,039
Loan Amount $168,875 Net Equity$15,847$26,211$36,993$48,208$59,875
Home ownership in these circumstances gives the borrower a net equity of almost $60,000 after 5 years. Not bad compared with renting a property for the same 5 years. We assumed that the seller paid all the closing costs (which is quite a reasonable assumption these days).
The secret ingredient is leverage. The borrower puts only 3% down but gets to keep 100% of the appreciation. With interest rates as low as they are today, the millennial generation will probably want to kick itself in ten years time for the missed opportunity today.
Even with no appreciation the borrower gets net equity of $22,000 after 5 years, because a chunk of the monthly check goes to pay down the outstanding loan balance. However property taxes and maintenance will eat into that.
Realistically, 4% appreciation is over twice as high as inflation and a very satisfactory rate for the realistic homeowner.

Friday, December 12, 2014

Market Leveling Off & Price Per Sq/Ft

Arizonans pay attention to price per square foot: Total price divided by the total square feet of living space.  And yes, it’s both – useful & annoying. Among its many uses, it’s a popular way to track pricing trends for any given market segment (see select city and zip codes below).
It’s ‘annoying’ as a gross measurement, particularly in larger sample sizes, as it doesn't account for the many components that affect market value – location, lot size, condition, vintage, etc. to name a few.
In spite of the qualifiers it is a useful barometer of value, not only for showing pricing trends, but also establishing relative boundaries for what is obtainable in any given market segment.
For example, a home can be ‘over-improved’ so that while a ‘cost basis’ might suggest one value, the price per square foot of otherwise comparable properties will set limits on what a buyer will pay (‘market basis’)…or what a bank appraisal based on sold comparable properties will support.
With that backdrop we can now look at the price per square foot trends by select cities across the State of Arizona. Again, being mindful that the city view perspective is necessarily broad brush.
Also note that the more jagged trend lines will be typical of smaller market samples, where one sale can skew the data for that month.
You can come to your own conclusion looking at the area data of interest. What is generally apparent is the price improvements over the last 2 years. At the same time we currently see a leveling off in most markets as demand has moderated with increased prices. There are notable exceptions – Prescott, Cottonwood, Sedona & Flagstaff where the high country continues to roll.
Price per square foot trends, while a bit ‘annoying’ do help us visualize general pricing in the ebb and flow of supply and demand.
For the specific trend in your area of interest contact me and I'll get to work and shoot it over.
Chandler2

Thursday, November 20, 2014

"But on Zillow it says..."

There are some phrases that a Realtor will absolutely dread to hear.  I won’t bore you with the list but lately there are five words I’m hearing more and more…

“But on Zillow it says…”

Unlike like most Agents I actually like Zillow.  If you are confident in your value proposition and are able to articulate what your job actually is Zillow, Trulia and others are a great tool to be leverages by the industry and not discarded.  If your agent is threatened or annoyed by these services you may want to reconsider your representation and ask the tough questions to determine if you have the right relationship based on your needs.

Back to Zillow:

Pros

Education – I love the platform and the information it brings to consumers.  The service has engaged buyers and sellers.  This has made my job of searching, rating and viewing homes significantly easier and less time consuming.  The power of the search is now leveraged by the consumer so they can narrow the area, preferences and competition much quicker and have essentially taken this off my plate.  Educated buyers and sellers are much easier to assist through the process.  Their communication is faster, expectations are clear and delivery is smooth and progressive.

Exposure – The link from IDX feeds, syndications, websites etc. Is shared automatically and seamlessly in many cases.  One of my jobs is to expose the property to as many qualified buyers as possible.  The new technology of Zillow allows for this to be streamlined and simple.

Inconsistency – While most people view this as a con.  Agents should not.  Buyers and sellers quickly, through verification with an agent, realize that this site is a starting point and far from accurate.  It’s not designed to be.  It’s designed to collect money from advertising.  Accuracy is not the business model.  The inconsistency speaks for itself and highlights why an educated and experienced agent is absolutely necessary through the process. 

Cons

Accuracy – Consumers could either be pleasantly surprised or frustrated with the actual value of their home.  Again Zillow is paid to keep your eyes on the screen.  Not offer you a valuable accurate estimate and I don’t blame them.  It’s not easy.  Without the personal touch of a representative how could a computer know to adjust for all the intangibles of each property.  Lot location, pool, upgrades, fixtures, artificial grass, HOA, Age, Smell, Solar…the list is extensive and incredibly unique.

Crutch – Unfortunately I’ve also experienced the agents who will utilize this source similar to how a consumer would.  This has several effects.  One it gives horrible representation to their clients and allows for the negative reputation of our industry to continue.  It also makes negotiating a nightmare.  The lack in effort and diligence creates an ill-informed seller or buyer and a stubborn agent.

The Know it All – “But on Zillow it says…” This can be very frustrating.  No matter how much you explain, defend with comps or offer their opinion cannot be altered.  Zillow is right and you are wrong.

Conclusion:
Personally I like Zillow and am not threatened by this.  It saves me time and allows me to focus on what I truly bring to the table.  To each his own.

All agents and consumers should be ready and able to talk about…

“What Zillow Says”


Until next time.

Friday, November 7, 2014

Does the real estate agent you use matter??

So it’s been a recent trend lately, it goes in spurts, that I find out a personal relationship hires another real estate agent to give their business to.  While I don’t take this personal and understand all the scenarios about personal relationships, family members etc. it occasionally throws me for a loop…and here’s why.

The irony behind people wanting to use their brother’s friends, neighbor’s uncle who just got their real estate license to do them a favor is that the new agent is doing YOU a disservice by allowing you to be sacrificed at the expense of their learning curve.  Now this is not true in all cases but don’t kid yourself, the other agent smells the fresh license and you will likely take the brunt of rookie mistakes without ever knowing.

When I first started almost a decade ago it still astounds me I was legally allowed to do business.  Real Estate school is completely irrelevant to the real world and only consistent transactions, good mentors and time will combine to make a quality real estate agent.

So this sounds great in theory but let’s put some teeth to it.  In my recent real world example I had a past client who decided to use a family member in their late 50’s who was “trying a new career path”.  This was a big mistake to which I will never reveal to them.  Here is the break down.

The new agent undervalued my ex-clients house by $10,000 minimum.  They had multiple offers on the first day, sight unseen and cash in a market and area in which this is no longer common.  Now fast forward to the purchase of their new home.  They offered list price on a house that was on the market for 4 months, needed work, was a rental property and had been listed as a rental but not filled in over 9 months.  Needless to say they needed to sell.  The cherry on top was that I knew the selling agent from a previous transaction.  They could have purchased this house for $11,500 less and all they had to do was ask.  The seller didn't even want to negotiate, just wanted it gone.

I know this because my past client called me half way through the purchase and had a ton of questions that his “new” agent could not answer.  I politely answered while listening to the above story.

So what did this mean to my past client…

$21,000 in money left on the table (probably more). Over a 30 year mortgage at 4.75% this will cost them almost $40,000 out of pocket….and they’ll never  know the difference.


I’m not here suggesting I know everything or that you should even use me.  Whatever you do stop and think about the decision you're make and handle it with the care it deserves.  It will likely be the most important financial investment of your lifetime.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Here is why sellers are often aggravated with selling their home.  A lack of education and knowledge about the realities of the market.  I dork out on this research to better serve my fellow agents and clients.  Where is your house??
We often look in the newspapers and see an overall annual appreciation AVERAGE and think we are all seeing the advertised 8% appreciation.  That couldn't be farther from the truth.  Remember how the average is calculated...it is not indicative of your house.  Below is a quick breakdown by price range to better gauge your home's actual appreciation.
We can all thank the few luxury homes that are selling for the recent jump in the overall market but certainly the majority is not seeing the same result.  
September 17 - If we examine the pricing as recorded in Maricopa and Pinal County Recorder offices for May through July in 2013 and 2014, we see the following changes in the average price per square foot:
Price RangeChange in Average $/SF
Below $100K6.8%
$100K-$125K6.9%
$125K-$150K7.1%
$150K-$175K4.8%
$175K-$200K3.9%
$200K-$225K4.6%
$225K-$250K4.3%
$250K-$275K4.2%
$275K-$300K2.8%
$300K-$350K6.4%
$350K-$400K3.4%
$400K-$500K2.6%
$500K-$600K3.8%
$600K-$800K3.4%
$800K-$1M-2.5%
$1M-$1.5M4.3%
$1.5M-$2M9.7%
$2M-$3M17.6%
$3M & Over2.9%
Note that the strongest price advances were for:
  1. $2M-$3M 17.6%
  2. $1.5M -$2M 9.7%
  3. $125K-$150K 7.1%
The overall change was 8.0%. However only two price ranges exceeded the overall percentage and most were well below that figure. Two effects are driving the overall number to be high:
  • fewer distressed transactions
  • low end price ranges have far lower volumes than last year
If we excluded distressed transactions the table looks like this:
Price RangeChange in Average $/SF
Below $100K6.4%
$100K-$125K4.9%
$125K-$150K5.7%
$150K-$175K2.8%
$175K-$200K2.6%
$200K-$225K3.4%
$225K-$250K3.4%
$250K-$275K3.1%
$275K-$300K1.4%
$300K-$350K5.3%
$350K-$400K2.5%
$400K-$500K2.4%
$500K-$600K3.9%
$600K-$800K3.3%
$800K-$1M-3.5%
$1M-$1.5M4.1%
$1.5M-$2M10.0%
$2M-$3M17.4%
$3M & Over2.9%
Between $150K and $1.5M the increases in average $/SF are fairly small over the year, averaging 3.3%. Below $150K the average change in price per sq. ft. was 6.5%. Above $1.5M the average change was 10.2%.
So although the headline change is 8%, for most homes between $150K and $1.5M, the actual increase was just 3.3%
Interestingly, the range $300K-$350K showed strength while $800K-$1M showed weakness. We might have expected the $300-350K range to be weak because of the reduction in the FHA loan limit, but this turned out not to be the case.
September 14 - If we divide the average sales price by the average final list price we get a useful guide to how strong the market is. Expressing the result as a percentage is most common, but we must remember that the range is not great. In the last 14 years the minimum has been 93.82% (Feb 5, 2009) and the peak was 99.55% (Jun 5, 2005). The long term average is 96.88% and we have just dropped below that average in the last 3 days. This is a sign that the market is starting to cool slightly again at it approaches a balance between supply and demand. The highest reading in 2014 was on September 2, just 2 weeks ago, so the cooling trend is fresh and yet to prove its significance. However it is running counter to the direction of the Cromford® Market Index so we need to keep a close watch on it.

Friday, September 5, 2014

Arizona Real Estate Market Update...

I get this questions quite a bit.  "How's the market"?  I'm sure you've asked this or heard it many times as well.  My response remains the same.

It depends.

Most people aren't actually asking how the overall market is since it's rare to have a house that fits into the median of the market trends.  It's like someone asking if your family is "normal".  Of course not, everyone's family is crazy.  Try to define normal.

So, from a real estate perspective your answer will depend on various factors i.e. location, price range, condition, upgrades, lot location, school district etc.  While your situation may be in an appreciating market others may be in a slow down period.

This is why it's important to have someone who understands how to analyze the statistics of your niche.  Unfortunately either bad experiences or a lack in education leaves many people in the dark as to what their real estate agent is supposed to do.  Anyone can pull comps from the last few months and give you a quick range estimate of a homes value.  Shoot, this is Zillow's business model.  However, your agent should be going deeper than this.

Analyzing each house and sale independently for common characteristics is a must.  For example; open floor plans work in some areas and not others,  garage vs. carport, pool, local eateries etc.  These will all help paint a picture about not just when houses are selling but what houses are selling and most importantly WHY.  Zillow can't tell you this and unfortunately most agents won't either.

Now, I will still answer the standard question with a link to my market pulse website.  It's a macro snap shot that I still follow to assist in narrowing trends.  However, if you have any questions about your specific market please don't leave it to chance, or worst to Zillow.  I'm here to help anytime.

Market Update

Chris Tiller, MBA
Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty
17207 N. Perimeter Dr. Suite 120
Scottsdale, AZ 85255
Office: 480.502.3500
Cell: 602.561.1346
Fax: 480.624.3795