As clients start their search in the new year everyone seems to be surprised at the prices and interest rates they will be facing. The natural first question is...
"Are we in a bubble?!?"
This is a fair assessment but as always I follow up this question and the "how's the market?" question with..."It Depends".
Which city makes a huge difference in appreciation. Even within each city specific communities and subdivisions have much different year over year changes. Couple this with price range, amenities, upgrades, stories etc. and you'll get a very different answer from me.
The broad brush is that today's median prices are about 20 to 25% below the peak of the market (2006). There are notable exceptions e.g. PV remains 30% below the peak, while 'next door' Arcadia has cruised past the peak by 10%! But if live in these markets this is not news. As always, location and price range are the major variables.
Sample Median Price trends from select communities:
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| Glendale |
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| Chandler |
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| North Scottsdale |
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| Paradise Valley |
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| Scottsdale (Downtown) |
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| Arcadia |
You will come to your own conclusions based on the market segments you work. We can definitely see that in the lower price ranges prices are trending up at a modest pace; then you have the sizzling hot fashionable locations of downtown Scottsdale and Arcadia where price almost doesn't seem to matter; and then the mid-upper range north Scottsdale / Carefree / Fountain Hills that seem relatively flat, but stable.
With inventories relatively balanced against supply we would expect more of same going into 2017 and our high season. But we shall see.
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