Wednesday, January 11, 2017

What about inventory's impact on the market?

We have been seeing drops in inventory for the low end for a very long time and active counts were again down by 26% at the end of December. This shortage of supply has made it hard to keep sales volume growing and indeed quarterly sales slipped by 2%. In the mid-range, supply was down slightly but sales volume grew by 35% so there was still upward pressure on pricing. At the high end over $500,000 we saw increased supply, but sales volume jumped by 48% so here too we saw much stronger appreciation than we were experiencing 12 months ago.
Overall we saw a very healthy increase of 7% across the entire market. However we now see all price ranges participating, not just the low end. In fact the high end slightly out-performed the mid-range.
The top ZIP codes for appreciation in average $/SF between 4Q 2015 and 4Q 2016 were:
  1. Mesa 85201 +16.9%
  2. Mesa 85204 +13.4%
  3. Mesa 85213 +11.6%
  4. Mesa 85210 +10.4%
  5. Chandler 85249 +9.5%
  6. Gilbert 85233 +9.0%
  7. Gilbert 85298 +8.6%
  8. Queen Creek 85142 +8.3%
  9. Sun Lakes 85248 +7.8%
  10. Mesa 85208 +7.7%
The weakest appreciation was seen in:
  1. Phoenix 85044 -0.4%
  2. Mesa 85202 +1.3%
  3. Mesa 85205 +1.9%
  4. Gilbert 85297 +2.0%
  5. Phoenix 85045 +2.3%
  6. Phoenix 85048 +2.8%
  7. Mesa 85206 +3.1%
  8. Gilbert 85296 +3.4%
  9. Tempe 85283 +3.5%
  10. Tempe 85281 +3.6%
ACTIVE LISTING COUNT LONG TERM GRAPH BELOW

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