AZ Inventory Update

 Let us take a deep dive into the active listings to see exactly how dire the supply situation is on February 10, 2021.

Across the ARMLS residential sales database, there are a total of 9,440 active listings. Among these we have 365 (4%) that have a contract contingent on buyer's sale (CCBS). We also have 4,515 in UCB status. This means they have a contract agreed and signed, but are (in theory) open to back-up offers. In most cases, this is a ruse to allow the listing to stay on external web sites like Zillow. If it changed to the more realistic pending status then it is no longer being marketed so it will disappear from external sites, reducing the agent's exposure. A small percentage is actively welcoming buyers to make an offer, but it is hard to tell how small that percentage really is.

What we can see is that 48% of active listings are in UCB status and if we add the CCBS listings, more than half (52%) already have a contract agreed and signed. Whether you consider them part of the active inventory is up to you. This is why we have some charts that include them and other charts that do not.

We are left with 4,560 listings that have no signed contract - 48% of the total).

How do these 4,560 listings break down by segment:

Segment	Count	Percentage	Days Inventory
Out of Area	533	12%	40.3
Within Greater Phoenix	4,027	88%	14.4
For Homes Within Greater Phoenix:
Greater Phoenix - New Build	576	14%	46.0
Greater Phoenix - Built Before 2020	3,451	86%	13.0
For Homes Built Before 2020 Within Greater Phoenix:
List Price Under $300,000	1,113	32%	9.5
List Price Between $300,000 and $500,000	926	27%	9.2
List Price Between $500,000 and $1,000,000	709	21%	18.1
List Price over $1,000,000	703	20%	74.9

We can conclude:

• out of area listings are 12% of what is available (normally this is less than 2 or 3%)
• new home listings are 14% of what is available in Greater Phoenix (normally less than 5%)
• Below $500,000 there is less than 10 days of inventory. Normal inventory is 120 to 150 days.
• Over $1 million there is over 2 months of inventory, but we would expect to see 10 to 12 months in a normal market

The resale supply is not only the scarcest we have ever seen, it is a lot worse than it looks at first sight. On top of that, the trend is currently headed further down.

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The data above says we currently have about 1/2 the last inventory low point in 4/'05 of 8,342. Today's 4,560 leaves me gobsmacked! 10-day supply under $500K you'd expect, but a 2 months supply over $1M!!!

I worry it's a self-perpetuating situation, as would-be sellers resist selling (if they have a choice) for fear they can't find something to buy (assuming they're staying local).