For a 5-year 'bank grade' Forecast we have Collateral Analytics.
For a more immediate short-term forecast, we have the Cromford Market Index (CMI).
To prove the efficacy of the CMI as an accurate short term predictor of the market, take a moment and look at the dark trend line in the long term graph below:
We see the CMI anticipates both the rise of the market from 2004 through mid 2005 and the crash.
It's really rather remarkable when you see that what the CMI was saying about the market in April of 2005 (CMI=312) surprisingly dropped about 100 points by August of 2005 (CMI=217) - at time when all the wall street smart guys were saying 'buy, buy, buy' and everyone who followed that advise lost big over the next year the market gave up all it's gains and continued into the negative territory through mid 2008. So, if you were armed with the CMI back then AND believed it, you would be way ahead of the game.
With this remarkable historical perspective, look at the CMI today. It's practically off the chart at around 490.
To translate what we're looking at:
- A Cromford Market Index (CMI) of 100 = a balanced market (between supply and demand).
- A CMI score below 100 favors buyers, with supply exceeding demand.
- A CMI score over 100 favors sellers, with demand exceeding supply.
However, you could also say that a CMI score over 100 favors buyers to the extent they can capitalize on anticipated future appreciation.
That's the message to buyers today:
Yes, it's tough to find what you're looking for.
Yes, you're going to feel like you're paying too much.
However, if the history of the CMI can be relied upon, you can anticipate rapid appreciation, at least for the short term, until something gives!
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