Here comes the slow down : ) Not much, but buyers will take anything...

 New listings continue to arrive at a strong pace and supply is growing at the fastest rate we have seen since April 2020. Those who did not believe us when we said the market had started to cool in the second half of March must surely believe us now. This is cooling akin to an Arizona Summer when 110 degrees feels quite a bit less toasty than 117 degrees. But still hot.

Here is the weekly chart showing active listings excluding active listings in UCB and CCBS status.

Active counts are leading indicators and it is tricky to predict where they will go, but the last 2 weeks suggest that more people are getting tempted by the high prices.

If you (at the above) chart you can check out 2005 and see how active listings grew massively from around 9,000 to almost 24,000 between June and December. The key question is whether our counts in 2021 will follow a similar trajectory or increase at a more moderate pace. It looks unlikely that the current upward trend will be reversed, but you never know for sure.

Nobody can accuse this market of being boring.

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The Cromford Observation above parses an interesting point we've highlighted - that more sellers may be getting tempted by the high prices'. 

We normally associate the 2006 - 2008 rapid increase in inventory relating to the crash in market demand. But today's Cromford Observation rightly points out that just after the inventory bottomed out and sales were peaking, there was this ramp-up in inventory shown in the graph above. 

The point is, if we do continue to see an increase in inventory, beyond seasonal expectations, as the Daily Observation suggests, it will likely be driven by sellers wanting to cash-in on some of that equity and not a predictor of a reduction in demand (other than seasonal).

We don't see anything in the immediate future that would shake our confidence in things continuing to continue, as our 'bank-grade' Forecasts suggest.

And Collateral Analytics 5-year Forecast for the Phoenix Metro (grey line) and select Scottsdale zip codes:

Also, keep in mind that if we going to be ground in the fundamentals of supply and demand dynamics there's this: The latest Top Inbound / Outbound report from North American Moving Services:

Interesting times to say the least!