Slowing Trend Continues...as predicted.

 Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities:

For the second week running, we have all 17 cities moving in the same direction over the last month - favorable to buyers. The cooling trend is becoming more apparent as inventory levels start to recover from the extreme lows reached 3 or 4 months ago. Sales counts remain very healthy but the number of listings under contract is in a falling trend meaning that demand is in decline, albeit a very mild decline.

Most areas are seeing higher active counts due to the fast arrival of new listings. Although many of these go under contract in a matter of days, if not hours, the number of listings available has grown by quite large percentages since February. Examples include:

• Phoenix - minimum was 530 on Feb 24 - now we have 809 - up 53%
• Mesa - minimum was 124 on Feb 17 - now we have 255 - up 106%
• Scottsdale - minimum was 377 on Mar 3 - now we have - up 32%

To put these into context, the long term averages are:

• Phoenix - 4,327
• Mesa - 1,536
• Scottsdale - 2,222

Normal levels of supply are still a long way over the horizon.

All 17 cities still have CMI readings over 300 which indicate there are plenty of price increases still to come. However, the pace of appreciation should start to fall off if the CMI continues to show a strong declining trend.

____________________

When they say 'normal levels of supply are still a long way over the horizon', the long term view below dramatically illustrates just how far we currently are from relative balance between supply and demand:

Note: You have to go back about 7 years to 2014 to find that 'balance'.

Interesting how the past 'market peak' rather pales to what we're experiencing today.

Keep in mind that it's easy to be misled ie. We see the pattern of the rapid rise, followed by the rapid fall folks are concerned about being repeated.

Two words should mitigate that concern: Housing shortage: 

Again, the dynamics of that 2004-2006 rise and fall are completely different than what we're experiencing. 

Most notably, while there is plenty of speculation and institutional buying today (Blackrock et al), it's not being fueled by 'liar loans'. First and foremost, we have a housing shortage - it's local, national and international. 

Message to buyers: 

To the extent there are more choices out there, jump on the opportunity. It appears there is still plenty of upside potential.

Message to sellers: 

'Competitive positioning' - pricing your home as 'the next best value all things considered' is always the strategy that delivers the highest price. And that's because 'it's competition for the best home in any given market segment that drives the price (and shortens the marketing time). The operative word is 'competition'.