The monthly average sale price of closed listings across the ARMLS database has shown absolutely no sign of deceleration in 2022 so far. The latest reading for February 26 is $558,942. This is not shocking, given the absurdly lop-sided market balance, but impressive for several reasons:
- It is an increase of $11,246 IN A SINGLE WEEK - a rise of more than 2% in 7 days
- We burst through the $550,000 barrier just 18 weeks after bursting through the $500,000 barrier
- The $450,000 barrier was exceeded exactly 1 year ago
- The $400,000 barrier was exceeded in August 2020
- The $350,000 barrier was exceeded way back in June 2007, just as everyone realized the bubble had already burst
There are still many ill-informed observers predicting falling prices in the near term. They are very much mistaken. The fact that there are so many is in itself evidence that we are not in a bubble. When bubble conditions exist, there is almost universal jubilation and euphoria. Doubt only sets in after the peak has been reached and denial goes into overdrive.
The skeptical reaction to predictions of further price rises is direct evidence that there is plenty of room left for Greater Phoenix home prices to increase. We have not got anything like the absurd over-confidence that characterized early 2005 and led us to call the bursting of the bubble in 2Q 2005. By 3Q 2005 all the key market indicators were headed south, but very few paid any attention. Those that did pay attention kept quiet about it and sold their real estate holdings while it was still easy to do so.
Please pay attention to the same mathematical signals now. They will not mislead you like human opinions will.
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