Short Term Rentals up 23% NE Valley
MLS Rental Supply up 60% in 5 Months
For Buyers:
Don’t be fooled by the small increase in supply and decrease in demand compared to last year. The Greater Phoenix housing market is far from weak and will continue to see prices appreciate in the foreseeable future. Housing market indicators move slowly, unlike other types of investments such as stocks or currencies. When events such as interest rate hikes or stock market fluctuations occur, there isn’t an immediate measurable response in housing prices. Consumers may “panic sell” stocks, crypto, or even their belongings; however, selling the roof over their head or a performing rental is typically the last resort. For this reason, jolts to the economy (like a sudden pandemic or economic sanctions) need to be in effect for many months without improvement for housing to see prices finally respond.
A unique player in the housing market is the short-term vacation rental. This product is specifically prolific in Northeast Valley cities such as Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek. According to AirDNA, Scottsdale alone was estimated to have 5,400 active short-term rentals as of December 2021, up 23% from the 4,400 estimated just last September and equating to over 4% of existing housing supply for that city. This changes the game in evaluating the value of property in high tourist areas like Kierland and Old Town Scottsdale. Instead of the traditional route utilizing past sales and adjusting for amenities for residential occupancy, certain homes are valued as individual businesses that come complete with a revenue stream, furnishings, established clients, websites, advertising contracts and hired support services. Under these circumstances, appraisers have their hands full distinguishing between a business sale and residential resale when evaluating appreciation.
To compound the issue in the Northeast Valley, new construction permits are not as abundant as they are in the West Valley and Southeast Valley; meaning there is little relief in the form of future new housing supply to accommodate both full and part time demand in the area.
For Sellers:
Greater Phoenix is not close to peaking in price for residential resale, not with supply of homes for sale 76% below normal for March and demand 13% above normal. However, **be aware that the estimated payment for a 1,500-2,000 square foot home is now $77 higher than the median rent for a similar rental leased through the Arizona Regional MLS. The rental market responds to a shift in demand faster than the resale market does because landlords are faster to respond with a lease price reduction if their investment is vacant for too long.
In 2021, median asking rents jumped from $1,855 in January to a peak of $2,395 by September, an increase of $540, and have remained between $2,300-$2,400 per month since. Tenants accommodated the increases until about June, then the median for closed leases stalled at $2,100 per month. Despite the stall, landlords continued to increase their asking rent and saw the supply of available rentals rise by 60%. This is a significant development because the only reason a landlord would decide to compensate a real estate agent by listing their rental in the MLS is if they’re not renting it fast enough through other means.
You may be wondering why this matters to you as a home seller. The health of the rental market is often looked at as an indicator for the health of the resale market. If lease rates continue to go up and are successfully closed at those rates, then that’s a good indicator for resale prices as well. When rental rates reach a ceiling and stay there for months, then it’s possible the resale market may follow, but as stated earlier, resale is slow to respond. It could take many more months before the shift is realized, so for today it’s business as usual.
What Is The Price-To-Rent Ratio?
The price-to-rent ratio is a metric that identifies the more affordable option between owning a home and renting in a respective community for a year. The aptly named PTR ratio allows prospective buyers and renters to evaluate two different variables with a single equation. In comparing an area’s median home value with its average annual rental rate, buyers and renters are rewarded with a single metric which may suggest the most affordable living arrangements (relatively speaking). As a result, the PTR ratio is one of the most common tools people use to determine whether to buy or rent in a given neighborhood.Again, Phoenix is currently about in the middle, albeit the ratio is increasing e.g. The current YTD Median Sales Price in Phoenix is $427 / Median YTD rent of $2005 and we get a PTR of just over 21.
What Is A Good Price-To-Rent Ratio?
Every price-to-rent ratio calculation will result in a decimal which can be translated in one of three ways:
15 & Under: A price-to-rent ratio of 15 or less suggests it is more affordable to buy than rent.
16-20: A price-to-rent ratio between 16 and 20 suggests it may be better to rent than buy.
21 & Higher: A price-to-rent ratio of 21 or more suggests it’s better to rent than buy.
It is important to note that the PTR ratio has its limitations. Not only is it intended to compare renting and owning over a single year, but it also doesn’t account for several important variables, not the least of which are outlined below.
https://www.fortunebuilders.com/price-to-rent-ratio/
___________________How to Calculate Price-to-Rent Ratio
To calculate the price-to-rent ratio, we used the following equation:
Median Home Value ÷ Median Annual Rent = Price-to-Rent Ratio
Our data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau, which provides median home values and median monthly rent. As a simple example of how the formula works, consider Phoenix, Arizona. Phoenix has a median home value of $266,600 and a median annual rent of $13,284. So its price-to-rent ratio is 20.07, which you get by dividing $13,284 into $266,600.
Price-to-Rent Ratio by City
To help you in your renting and buying decisions, we found the price-to-rent ratio in the 50 largest U.S. cities. Median home value data comes from the Census Bureau’s 2019 1-year Community Survey. Note that these home values are just projections. Actual home values will vary based on other factors such as proximity to commercial centers, access to transit and home size. Rentals tend to be smaller (and therefore less expensive) than for-sale properties, so these values may overestimate true market prices.
The cities with the highest price-to-rent ratios are San Francisco, Oakland and New York. That means they’re the least friendly to homebuyers (since home values are significantly higher than what you’d pay in rent). At the other end of the spectrum are cities like Detroit, Memphis and Milwaukee. These markets are very favorable to homebuyers, with ratios below 13.
Price-to-Rent Ratios by City City Price-to-Rent
RatioMedian Home Value San Francisco, California 51.79 $1,217,500 Oakland, California 42.06 $807,600 New York, New York 38.26 $680,800 San Jose, California 37.48 $999,900 Los Angeles, California 37.39 $697,200 Seattle, Washington 36.65 $767,000 Long Beach, California 35.07 $614,400 Washington, D.C. 33.61 $646,500 San Diego, California 30.38 $658,400 Boston, Massachusetts 30.12 $627,000 Portland, Oregon 28.28 $445,200 Denver, Colorado 26.02 $447,500 Atlanta, Georgia 23.83 $359,500 Austin, Texas 23.63 $378,300 Sacramento, California 23.15 $380,600 Miami, Florida 23.02 $358,500 Las Vegas, Nevada 22.34 $305,900 Minneapolis, Minnesota 22.02 $282,200 Colorado Springs, Colorado 21.88 $318,200 Fresno, California 21.79 $276,600 Chicago, Illinois 20.22 $272,200 Nashville, Tennessee 20.10 $287,300 Phoenix, Arizona 20.07 $266,600 New Orleans, Louisiana 20.04 $242,900 Raleigh, North Carolina 19.65 $274,200 Albuquerque, New Mexico 19.50 $211,800 Mesa, Arizona 19.16 $259,300 Tampa, Florida 18.42 $265,700 Virginia Beach, Virginia 18.11 $296,200 Charlotte, North Carolina 17.89 $252,100 Dallas, Texas 17.10 $231,400 Tucson, Arizona 17.01 $172,700 Louisville, Kentucky 16.33 $172,100 Arlington, Texas 15.85 $213,800 Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 15.80 $165,700 Fort Worth, TX 15.72 $209,400 Omaha, Nebraska 15.59 $175,800 Tulsa, Oklahoma 15.39 $152,700 Jacksonville, FL 15.18 $200,200 Houston, Texas 14.90 $195,800 Columbus, Ohio 14.68 $173,300 Kansas City, Missouri 14.33 $168,400 Indianapolis, Indiana 14.26 $155,400 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 14.15 $183,200 San Antonio, Texas 13.86 $171,100 Baltimore, Maryland 13.69 $179,100 El Paso, Texas 13.14 $133,600 Milwaukee, Wisconsin 12.87 $133,600 Memphis, Tennessee 10.46 $115,900 Detroit, Michigan 5.67 $58,900
https://smartasset.com/mortgage/price-to-rent-ratio- in-us-cities
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Continued appreciation and rising interest rates will likely accelerate this trend.
Important distinction: 'Affordability' does not factor in 'Appreciation' - meaning that while it may be more affordable to rent in the short term, renters are losing ground, as they are not building wealth through appreciation, not to mention the many other benefits of home ownership - deferred capital gain; 'sweat equity'; pride of ownership; fixed costs; etc.
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