Interesting to see AZ in the affordability index rankings....

 The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.

The new report covers home sales during the period November 2023 to January 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid December, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.

We have 3 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a lower index for Phoenix for the third time in 10 months. 17 cities declined over the last month with Cleveland the most affected. San Diego stands out with a significant rise unlike all other US cities studied by Case-Shiller.

Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:

1. San Diego +1.8%
2. Washington +0.5%
3. Los Angeles +0.1%
4. Dallas -0.0%
5. Miami -0.1%
6. Atlanta -0.1%
7. San Francisco -0.1%
8. Charlotte -0.1%
9. Las Vegas -0.1%
10. Tampa -0.2%
11. Portland -0.2%
12. Dallas -0.2%
13. New York -0.3%
14. Denver -0.5%
15. Chicago -0.5%
16. Phoenix -0.5%
17. Boston -0.5%
18. Minneapolis -0.6%
19. Detroit -0.7%
20. Cleveland -0.9%

Phoenix has dropped from 12th to 16th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was -0.1%, so Phoenix fell well below that standard.

Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:

1. San Diego +11.2%
2. Los Angeles +8.6%
3. Detroit +8.2%
4. Charlotte +8.1%
5. Chicago +8.0%
6. New York +7.6%
7. Miami +7.5%
8. Boston +7.0%
9. Cleveland +5.9%
10. Atlanta +6.4%
11. Washington +6.3%
12. Las Vegas +5.6%
13. Tampa +4.6%
14. Phoenix +4.6%
15. San Francisco +4.5%
16. Seattle +4.4%
17. Minneapolis +3.1%
18. Dallas +2.9%
19. Denver +2.7%
20. Portland +0.9%

Phoenix remained in14th place once again, and is still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago with Portland once again doing relatively poorly. Southern California is now showing the highest annual appreciation, closely followed by Detroit, Charlotte and Chicago.

The national average is +6.0% year over year. Phoenix is therefore below that percentage once more, in contrast to last month.

__________________

The brains behind our top tier Collateral Analytics 5-year Forecasting tool, who has said the top weighted factor in projecting future appreciation in their 'bank grade' algorithm is affordability.

So, through that lens the latest Case-Shiller® data showing Phoenix a bit below average in current appreciation (albeit 3-month old data) is not a negative - particularly in an era of higher interest rates. 

Taking a closer look at affordability statewide I found this interesting graph, where we see Arizona 2nd only to Michigan in 'The Most Affordable...for Home Buyers and frankly we'll take Arizona over Michigan, right:)

Note the 'key metrics', as they include home additional affordability factors beyond just Av $/Sq Ft.