AZ Market Actually Balanced In Total BUT.......location matters.

 The Cromford® Market Index for all areas and types has declined a little further over the last week and dropped below the 110 mark, meaning we officially classify the market as balanced.

The decline has been very slow so there is no likelihood of anyone feeling the difference from one week to the next. However supply keeps creeping higher and demand remains very weak.

There is also a big difference between areas like Chandler and Gilbert which remain under firm control by sellers and areas like Maricopa and Buckeye where buyers have a strong advantage due to the plentiful supply, which includes a large number of newly built homes.

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The 'official' classification of a balanced market (Cromford Market Index +/- 100) is the product of your primary year-to-date taking point:

 'YTD we're experiencing a steady and largely disproportionate increase in inventory relative to demand.' 

Presently general demand is off 10% (without parsing price range).

Here is the CMI graph so you can see the aforementioned trend ~

Bifurcation ~

Looking at the market below $1M we have Demand off 11% year-over-year...

.Demand in the $1M plus market is up just over 7%. 

So, while bifurcation continues it's less pronounced in the luxury sector because 'money is moving to the valley' together with an inherently more resilient higher end sector e.g. 53% of transactions over $1.5M are cash.

Takeaways ~

Beyond the basic one line summary characterizing the market - 

• 'The broad increase in inventory relative to demand is giving us a relatively balanced market (supply vs. demand).'

As usual, price point and location matter mightily.

• The above graphs show the 18% spread between the down 11% market under $1M vs. the plus 7 market over $1M

Mastery is the art of creating distinctions,