"Thank You Cailifornia" - AZ Real Estate

This adage has been on the forefront of Realtor's conversations for years.  Very few justify this with provable data.  So let's do just that...

Trying to determine how many buyers in Maricopa County come from California is slightly complicated. We need to exclude many banks and companies like Opendoor who are headquartered in CA.

If we look only at the people who buy as individuals or couples, then we see significant growth over the last year. The annual purchase rate for people with Californian addresses is up 23% to 4,391. It is also up 43% from 2 years ago.

A similar (and slightly more pronounced) situation exists in Pinal County, where purchases by Californian couples or individuals are up 30% from last year and up 47% from 2 years ago. The absolute numbers are smaller however with the annual rate at 655. This is in line with the relative sizes of the Maricopa and Pinal markets.

We conclude there is a lot of truth in the rumor that more people are moving sideways from California to Central Arizona. In doing so they can often get 2 to 3 times as much home for the same money or release equity while same-sizing. Their property taxes will also be significantly lower.

The favorite locations for 2018's Californian buyers to originate are as follows:

1. San Diego
2. San Jose
3. Los Angeles
4. San Francisco
5. Irvine
6. Huntington Beach
7. Corona
8. Riverside
9. Fremont
10. Sacramento
11. Anaheim
12. Long Beach
13. Temecula
14. Mission Viejo
15. Rancho Cucamonga
16. Chula Vista
17. Carlsbad
18. Oceanside
19. Murietta
20. Simi Valley

This is an interesting list since you might assume the larger population segment (Los Angeles and San Fran) would have the highest number however both San Diego and San Jose have overall larger numbers, therefore, a signifigantly higher percentage of the population.

The potential inter-state movement here from California is vast and the current numbers represent only a trickle, given the total size of the Californian population.  This means the number could grow substantially.  For instance, even if the number doubled it would have limited immediate impact to CA but would show up quickly in the demand impact here in Maricopa.  I personally anticipate this to have a snowball impact on CA as when they finally do realize the "smart" money has left they will have to make drastic changes economically which will only increase the exodus.  They'll be caught chasing their tail unfortunately and AZ will be an obvious alternative pending the options in AZ maintain their appeal.  

Regardless of your political stance, or opinion, on the direction of CA it clearly is causing movement.  The benefit of this influx depends on your stance as well.  However, from a strictly real estate perspective if statistics 101 is applicable and all other factors equal the increase in demand is clearly good for us here in AZ.

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Side Note: Californians have long been the largest source of Arizona homebuyers outside of Arizonans.  This is nothing new. The point of measurement is to gauge if this process is increasing overall in relation to the normal flow. The Cromford Daily Observation has the metrics to confirm the rumor!  The number is increasing!! 

This happens for several reasons from what we can see in interviews and questionnaires.

- Increase in Taxes (This combines personal, property, sales etc.)

- Aging population - A change in life cycle (kids move out, retirement, health) create the ability to move.

- Employment - Growth in certain sectors among a mobile population.  Change in remote work options etc.

- Weather - Mudslides, Wild Fires, Smog,

This is not an all-encompassing list but among the leaders in why many are making, and have the ability, to make the move.  Since these major factors seem to only be increasing we can safely assume so will the number of people who leave.

Slowdown Is Here!!

Comparing the annual non-distressed single-family sales in Greater Phoenix between November 1, 2017 and October 31, 2018 with the previous year we find that the annual sales rate increase was 2.0% and the annual average $/SF rose by 7.3%.

The top-performing areas for appreciation were as follows:

1. Florence & Coolidge (85128 & 851320 - up 15.6%
2. Sky Harbor South (85040) - up 13.9%
3. Far West Phoenix (85037) - up 12.1%
4. I-10 and I-17 (85009, 85015, 85017, 85019, 85031, 85033, 85035) - up 11.8%
5. Maricopa (85138 & 85139) - up 10.7%
6. Southwest Phoenix (85043) - up 10.3%
7. Tolleson (85353) - up 10.2%
8. Sky Harbor North (85006, 85008, 85014, 85034) - up 10.1%
9. El Mirage (85335) - up 10.0%
10. South Buckeye (85326) - up 9.8%

The bottom performing areas for appreciation were as follows:

1. Gold Canyon (85118) - up 3.1%
2. South Tempe (85284) - up 3.5%
3. North Goodyear (85395) - up 3.8%
4. Downtown Phoenix (85003, 85004, 85007) - up 4.1%
5. Northeast Phoenix (85050, 85054) - up 4.1%
6. North Surprise (85387) - up 4.5%
7. North Phoenix (85083, 85085, 85310) - up 5.0%
8. North Scottsdale (85255, 85259, 85262, 85266) - up 5.1%
9. South Scottsdale (85250, 85251, 85257) - up 5.3%
10. Anthem (85086) - up 5.4%

For the first time in many years, the monthly dollar volume today is lower than it was this time last year. This confirms the market slowdown and indicates that the drop in monthly sales volume is now having a greater impact than the annual rise in average sales price.

The last time this crossover occurred was in December 2013. On that occasion dollar volume remained lower than the prior year for 9 months but re-crossed in September 2014 and has remained above the prior year from then until today.

If history is any guide, the dollar volume is likely to remain lower for the rest of 2018 and part of 2019. However it is unlikely to remain lower for the whole of 2019. In fact we can gauge the severity of the current downturn by how long it takes to cross back over the prior year's dollar volume. We are unable to make any specific prediction for this date, but we can see that the current downturn has so far proven to be less dramatic than the one that occurred in 2013.

Seller contribution to buyer closing costs...

One of the first signs of a softening market is the seller's contribution to buyers closings costs.  This can be used/justified for loan costs, repairs etc.

This is NOT reflected in the closed price so it's the first thing we start to see increasing as buyers become pickier and their expectations of homes increases.

Multiple offers go away and if your home is not on point you will sit on the market frustrated and confused.

Knowledge is power...

We leverage power into more money for you : )

More evidence of a 'market cooling down' (NOT a bubble burst)

Once again we are showing the table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities:

If you thought last week's average 8.4% decline was impressive, then you will be even more impressed with the 9.3% fall we have this week.

Glendale managed a very small increase but the other 16 cities saw declines, most of them over 10%.

The common story is that listings are going under contract slower than usual which makes active listings start to build up. We are NOT seeing an increase in the number of new listings arriving.

Despite the declines, all the cities (even Buckeye) are still in the seller's market zone over 110. Remember that 100 represents normality. We expect Buckeye will drop below 110 by next week, but the overall market is still much stronger than it was for most of 2014. We are approaching a more balanced market at some speed, but given the continued weak supply, we are very unlikely to overshoot. We would need a large increase in supply to create a buyer's market. It is not at all obvious where this extra supply would come from. The situation is very different from 2005 when tens of thousands of empty homes had been purchased by speculators with ill-advised and reckless loans. Anyone who thinks the current situation is a bubble bursting is very much mistaken. It is merely the normal process of an over-heated market cooling down, something we expect to see several times a decade. True bubbles in housing tend to occur once or twice a century.

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Once again, I find myself essentially highlighting the entire Daily Observation. It's so important to be able to counter sensational headlines and exaggerated points of view.

For those who fear another bubble burst I would reinforce and add to what has been quoted above:

• The crash of 2005 - 2007 was driven by lier loans
• By contrast, today it's an 'equity' market
• 'True bubbles in housing tend to occur once or twice a century' - we had the 'great depression' and we had the crash of the last decade
• The next generation (millenials) are about 5 years behind their predecessors because of economic factors
• A Sothebys International Realty research add-on is that the millenials are about to be the beneficiaries of the larges transfer of wealth in the history of the world (Boston Consulting Group's piece for SIR called The New Affluent
• That being said there is a housing shortage, particularly in affordable housing

Again, as a talking point, I like the verbiage 'it is merely the normal process of an over-heated market cooling down'.

The evidence that we are still more in a sellers market is evidenced by the above Cromford Market Index. 

For the uninitiated, a 'balanced' market, in terms of supply and demand, is a CMI of around 100.

The degree over 100 represents more demand than supply - sellers market

The degree under 100 represents more supply than demand - buyers market

The CMI tends to be a good short term market predictor, hence a sellers market that's cooling down. 

Avg Price Will Jump...that doesn't mean anyone went up....

Cromford Daily Observation - There was a significant decline in the number of MLS listings going under contract in October. The total of accepted offers was 8,133 which was down 2% from September (a much shorter month with 17% fewer working days) and it was down 8% from October 2017.

However the decline was not universal across all price ranges. Almost all the decline occurred in the price range up to $225,000. This saw just 2,630 accepted contracts, down 28% from 3,651. Between $225,000 and $350,000 accepted contracts rose 5% to 3,226 while between $350,000 and $800,000 they grew 10% to 2,003. Between $800,000 and $2 million there was a slight decline of 1% to 240 while over $2 million we saw a 31% increase to 34.

Seeing the huge drop-off in contracts under $225,000 we expect to see a strong upward trend in average price per sq. ft. over the coming months, since the mix of homes closing will be skewed towards the higher end.

This is why having a solid real estate agent who understands trends and can read the market will save you time and money.  If you think because the overall average price went up without looking at the above you may be inclined to list your house to high.  This will cause you to become "market worn" and statistics show you will actually net less then had you priced it right to begin with.  This doesn't count the time, energy and expenses you lost by being on the market longer.

Imagine you sat on the market 2 months longer than you should have.  You've netted less money and you're frustrated with the process and your agent.  This is minor in comparison to the cost you incurred over the long term in a market with rising interest rates.  Let's say over that time you saw a modest increase in interest rates.  This will be an expense you have to live with for years!!  Simply because you didn't understand the stats.

Yes, data matters.  But understanding and interpretation of that data are even more important.

Is the market slowing? Yep...but still early.

Cromford Daily Observation - The second week of October has continued the new trends started in the first week, an important signal for the market. New listings are well below last year but active listing counts have grown relatively fast. This means listings are going under contract more slowly. Closed listings are less numerous than last year too.

These all add up to a smaller market with lower activity, but not necessarily lower pricing. Demand is weakening but supply is also weak and needs to grow a lot if it is to match even a weaker demand level.

The Cromford® Market Index is still over 150 so we have a strong seller's market. However, it is falling very fast with supply increasing and demand falling. If this trend continues for a couple of months we could be well on the way back to a balanced market. Change is in the air, but it is still too soon to be certain how this will develop. It is clear that this is an important time to be watching the market carefully.

Here are a few key numbers from the first 2 weeks of October:

Measure for first 2 weeks of October	2017	2018	Change
New Listings - Greater Phoenix	4,916	4,226	down 14%
Active Listings Change - Greater Phoenix	827	871	up 5%
Closed Listings	2,845	2,646	down 7%
Pending Listings at end of period	5,786	4,973	down 14%
UCB & CCBS Listings at end of period	3,773	3,559	down 6%

All of these changes are negative for sellers, as evidenced by the short term Cromford® Market Index chart.

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It's rather startling to see that plummeting graph, but as referenced above keep in mind that a Cromford Market Index over 100 indicates a seller's market (demand exceeding supply). But also, as mentioned above, it's the pace of the trend that is definitely worth paying attention to. 

Also, keep in mind, as always, that this is a broad brush. Price ranges and locations behave differently. 

So this is a good time to closely monitor your markets of interest. To that end we have incredible, even proprietary tools, like Collateral Analytics, that can slice and dice down to the neighborhood level, albeit the cautionary note that when you 'chunk down' too much the lack of sufficient data makes charts schizophrenic and nearly impossible to interpret.

Beyond CA's 'bank grade' AVM the 2 charts I find most helpful are the Intelligence Reports - with it's slick, tightly packaged year-over-year comparison; and then the 5-year Forecast - something no one else has, again, with that 'bank grade' label we can attach to the data coming out of Collateral Analytics. 

One chart that helps give perspective relative to price range is this one, where it's pretty easy to see the fairly direct correlation between Price and Months Supply - still evidencing a seller's market basically under $1M. Over $1M is where it's always softer given the fact the buyer pool is that 1% or so. 

But then, on a national basis, we hear that the rise of the New Affluent among the millennials is and will continue to drive demand, albeit there are generational preferences that differ from the past. For example, the desire for the 'jewel box' - to live large on a smaller footprint; the trend toward more contemporary; etc:

All of the above requires me to be students of the game if I'm going to stay relevant to my buyers and sellers.

A few more graphs if you want to dork out some more.

For your success,

Shifting sands...the rise of modestly priced inventory

We are still examining the changes that took place in the single-family market between August 1 and September 1, but this time we will segment the market by price rather than location.

The first thing that strikes us is that supply increased for homes at or under $400,000, but decreased for homes over $400,000. It is a very long time since we have said anything like that, so something different seems to be going on.

• active listings at or under $400,000 without a contract grew 9% from 6,610 to 7,187
• active listings over $400,000 without a contract fell 0.3% from 5,304 to 5,288

The big drop in supply was for homes between $1.5M and $2M which fell by 11%. This has been a heavily over-supplied sector in the recent past.

• monthly sale for homes at or under $400,000 fell 7% from 5,391 to 5,038
• monthly sales for homes over $400,000 grew 2% from 1,505 to 1,536

This analysis confirms our observations on September 12. The low to mid-range market is seeing rising supply and falling sales while the higher mid-range and luxury market is doing the opposite. This is the reason why the West Valley, with a large share of the most affordable homes, was the weakest areas during August.

About 78% of single-family sales in Greater Phoenix are priced at or below $400,000, so if this market loses steam, it will not be fully compensated by strength at the higher end.

One month does not make a trend, but we should keep our eyes on the low-to-mid-range market over the next few months.

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The one sentence from above that needs to be emphasized more is, 'The low to mid-range market is seeing rising supply and falling sales while the higher mid-range and luxury market is doing the opposite.' Or to spell it out, the higher mid-range and luxury market is seeing a falling supply and rise in sales (demand).

While the implications of this observation (the potential for a new trend) is yet to be realized, to be sure the seasonal variable plays significantly i.e. more mid-and upper range sellers take their homes off the market in the summer and back on in the fall / high season.

The positive immediate take-away / talking point is an improving market for the 22% of the market over $400K (our wheelhouse at RLSIR), particularly the luxury sector, evidence the improving Cromford Market Index in PV, Cave Creek and Chandler, with only a slight decline in Scottsdale:

The quick read for the chart below is that a CMI over 100 indicates demand outpacing supply (sellers market). So the overall takeaway is that it is and has been a sellers market across the board. However, the monthly change (green = good for sellers; red = good for buyers) tends to be a good short term predictor of where the market is going.

We'll be most interested in how this plays out moving into our high season. 

Meanwhile, for sellers you can talk an improving mid-range and luxury sector and a great time to list with you!

For buyers $400K and below their choices may be improving.

Market Strength by City....Still HOT, but cooling down a bit for sellers.

Once again we show the Cromford® Market Index table for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities:

Only 5 cities improved for sellers over the past month, 3 of them in the Northeast Valley. Once again Paradise Valley and Scottsdale were the biggest gainers.

Avondale has regained its place at the head of the table despite losing 1%. The Southeast Valley has lost the dominance it held in the early part of the year, with Tempe (down 14%) and Gilbert (down 8%) the biggest decliners. Only Mesa remains above 200 although it went backwards by 2%. Chandler managed a 1% advance.

All 17 cities remain seller's markets, but 12 out of the 17 weakened for sellers.

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The Cromford Market Index (CMI) is an accurate short-term predictor of market strength.

Essentially a measure of demand relative to supply, where a balanced market = a score of 100.

Less than 100 is the degree to which supply is outpacing demand (buyers market).

More than 100 is the degree to which demand is outpacing supply (sellers market).

Red arrow down = month-over-month trend favors buyers.

Green arrow up = month-over-month trend favors sellers. 

We are seeing a strengthening of the upper-end markets. 

As I've suggested before, in the 'ebb and flow' of markets it's nice to have it 'flowing' in our wheelhouse, particularly in places like Cave Creek and by extension hopefully Carefree as well, though Carefree's small size keeps it off the Cromford Index radar.

July 2018 - RE Market Update (for the numbers dorks)

Market Summary for the Beginning of July

Starting with the basic ARMLS numbers for July 1, 2018 and comparing them with July 1, 2017 for all areas & types:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB): 16,101 versus 18,087 last year - down 11.0% - but up 0.5% from 16,018 last month
• Active Listings (including UCB): 20,464 versus 22,301 last year - down 8.2% - and down 1.7% compared with 20,809 last month
• Pending Listings: 6,092 versus 6,486 last year - down 6.1% - and down 7.8% from 6,608 last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 10,455 versus 10,700 last year - down 2.3% - and down 8.3% from 11,399 last month
• Monthly Sales: 9,171 versus 9,608 last year - down 4.5% - and down 9.1% from 10,093 last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $163.59 versus $151.67 last year - up 7.9% - but down 0.5% from $164.35 last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $267,329 versus $245,000 last year - up 9.1% - and up 1.7% from $262,900 last month

The supply of active listings without a contract rose slightly during the month of June, even though total active listings dropped 1.7%. June was a slightly weaker month for new listings, down just over 1% compared to last year. We normally see total supply drop between June and July, but it is a surprise to see active listings without a contract move a little higher. A very slim ray of sunshine for buyers, perhaps.

The sales count for June looks weak, down significantly from May and the first month to show a year-on-year decline for 2 years. Before we start to wring our hands, we need to check how many working days there were in June 2017 and 2018. There were 22 in 2017 and 21 in 2018, giving June 2018 a 4.5% disadvantage. This is exactly the same percentage as the shortfall in sales compared with June 2017. We conclude that the underlying sales rate is very similar to last year. This is nothing to be too concerned about but it is evidence that the sales rate peaked in May and may no longer be rising. To confirm this we look at the annual sales rate which stands at 96,965. A month ago, we saw 97,402, so we are seeing confirming evidence that sales are no longer growing. However there is also little sign of a significant decline in sales so far, as the huge declines at the bottom and are sufficiently balance by increases in the mid-range and top end.

The number of listings under contract at the beginning of July is lower than last year - down 3% - but this is nothing new, as it was down 6% last month. In conjunction with the lower monthly sales count and the weaker annual sales rate, this confirms that demand is getting slightly weaker. A combination of poor supply, higher pricing and rising interest rates makes this unsurprising. Demand is strong at the upper end but unit volumes are too small above $500,000 to have much impact on the overall market direction. The decline in demand is small and because of the weak supply, difficult to detect in the real world as it is still so much higher than supply.

Just as median sales prices dropped unusually low during the housing crash, they are now rising artificially quickly. This is predominantly caused by the lack of supply of homes at the low end, not by the increase in home prices. We caution you not to use the median sales price as a guide to how fast the market is appreciating. The average price per sq. ft. is a much better measuring tool at times like these.

Purchases by institutional investors are now led by Progress Residential with Cerberus easing up. Both are buying roughly 1 new single-family home a day to convert to a rental. This is a much lower purchase rate than we saw from Cerberus between November 2017 and March 2018

ibuyers continue to grow their penetration of the market. During June 2018 in Maricopa County, we counted 456 iBuyer purchases and 354 iBuyer sales. Market share for purchases went 73% to Opendoor, 23% to OfferPad and 4% to Zillow (trading as Signpost Homes). To capture these properties, buying prices are getter even closer to market price so the open question is not whether many sellers like to sell their homes this way, but whether these iBuyers can survive long-term on the small gross margins between the buying and selling price, plus the fees charged to the sellers. In Pinal County, we have not completed the June totals yet, but OfferPad is the bigger player, with 60% of purchased, 40% going to Opendoor and Zillow not making an appearance yet.

Days of Inventory....One of My Favorites Charts

Cromford Daily Observation - My favorite Tableau chart is Days of Inventory

The reason is that it packs a lot of information into just one chart and shows you the history since 2011 as well as current conditions. It is updated weekly and currently shows 57.8 days of inventory for Greater Phoenix as a whole. This excludes active listings with an existing contract (UCB or CCBS) even though they still count as active to ARMLS.

The lower the number the more the market favors sellers over buyers. 57.8 (days) is the lowest we have seen since 2012 but we got down to 42.9 then. However the 2012 number was driven down by investors and their ravenous appetite for bank-owned homes. If we filter out everything except normal transactions then we stand at 58 days, lower than any point in the last 8 years.

If you are expecting the market to weaken then watch this chart. It will have to rise much like it did in the second half of 2013. No-one knows the future for sure, but this chart will quickly indicate if the market is headed for a change.

It is always possible to find sectors of the market that are behaving differently from the rest. For example the city of Mesa stands at just 41 days, but if you restrict the chart to homes over $1 million, there are 517 days of inventory, not far below the long term average of 587. The high-end market in Mesa therefore feels nothing like the frenzied market at the low end. If we confine ourselves to homes in the sector between $175,000 and $250,000, so beloved of iBuyers and landlords, there are only 21 days of inventory, less than a third of the long term average of 68. It therefore indicates why we see strong appreciation at the low end and weak appreciation at the top.

You can conduct similar analyses for most cities round the valley. One exception to the pattern is Anthem and New River, an area which seems to be losing the plot. Here there are 108.5 days of inventory, which is above the long term average of 94 and the annual average of 100. This a distinctly negative signal, but it does seem to be ​confined to this specific area. It was down at 72 as recently as the start of 2018. This illustrates how the Days of Inventory chart reinforces the message we get from the Cromford® Market Index. Both are leading indicators.

Make sure you compare apples to apples when judging peak 06' vs 18'

We still see occasional claims that pricing is back to the levels during the bubble years but we refute these claims. We still have quite a long way to go in most segments of the market, with just a handful of special exceptions.

First of all, people make the mistake of using median sales prices. This is NOT a fair way to compare 2018 with 2006. In 2006 the median single-family house size across Greater Phoenix was far smaller (1,741 sq. ft.) than the median house size in 2018 (1,886 sq. ft.). That is a difference of 8%, so the median sales price in 2018 would need to exceed that in 2006 by at least 8% before we could realistically claim pricing had recovered to 2006 levels.

It is also not fair to use monthly average price per sq. ft. because this is a volatile measure and if one month pops up the next may drop back down again. We can call a recovery only when prices are consistently higher than they used to be.

We need to use a long term measure and one that incorporates the change in home sizes. For this reason we like the annual average price per square foot. With this measure in mind we can examine the pricing by ZIP code for single-family-homes. 

(Sample charts for the NE Valley can be found below - MikeB)

The following ZIP codes have an annual average price per square foot for single-family homes that exceeds the maximum achieved in 2005-2009.

1. Phoenix 85006 - $195.45 versus the peak of $192.44 in July 2007
2. Eloy 85131 - $114.80 versus the peak of $111.08 in December 2007
3. Scottsdale 85251 - $271.92 versus the peak of $252.02 in September 2007
4. Scottsdale 85257 - $202.07 versus the peak of $193.68 in November 2006.

The following are within 5% of recovery:

1. Phoenix 85008 - $168.93 versus the peak of $177.47 in April 2007
2. Phoenix 85013 - $197.84 versus the peak of $207.02 in April 2007
3. Phoenix 85014 - $203.29 versus the peak of $212.21 in December 2007
4. Scottsdale 85250 - $240.93 versus the peak of $251.14 in February 2007
5. Tempe 85281 - $184.28 versus the peak of $193.90 in January 2007

The following are within 10% of recovery:

1. Phoenix 85003 - $253.68 versus the peak of $273.60 in February 2008
2. Phoenix 85015 - $147.76 versus the peak of $160.91 in April 2007
3. Phoenix 85018 - $294.17 versus the peak of $315.83 in April 2007
4. Mesa 85202 - $146.49 versus the peak of $159.38 in October 2006
5. Mesa 85204 - $141.33 versus the peak of $155.00 in November 2006
6. Chandler 85224 - $158.38 versus the peak of $175.41 in September 2006
7. Tempe 85282 - $157.25 versus the peak of $166.70 in August 2006
8. Chandler 85286 - $154.05 versus the peak of $168.13 in September 2007 (note that this ZIP code did not exist in 2006)

All the other ZIP codes are adrift of their peak levels by more than 10%. Looking at a few of the largest in terms of the number of existing homes, we see

1. Phoenix 85032 - $165.37 versus the peak of $189.08 (12% below)
2. Phoenix 85041 - $111.21 versus the peak of $146.24 (24% below)
3. Mesa 85207 - $161.92 versus the peak of $201.16 (19% below)
4. Chandler 85225 - $151.67 versus the peak of $171.16 (11% below)
5. Gilbert 85234 - $147.71 versus the peak of $178.08 (17% below)
6. Chandler 85249 - $148.14 versus the peak of $182.04 (19% below)
7. Scottsdale 85255 - $281.60 versus the peak of $325.31 (13% below)
8. Scottsdale 85262 - $269.89 versus the peak of $374.69 (28% below)
9. Paradise Valley 85253 - $357.25 versus the peak of $479.21 (25% below)
10. Scottsdale 85254 - $204.45 versus the peak of $237.63 (14% below)
11. Glendale 85308 - $147.51 versus the peak of $178.63 (17% below)
12. Buckeye 85326 - $105.00 versus the peak of $153.92 (32% below)
13. Goodyear 85338 - $122.49 versus the peak of $167.59 (27% below)
14. Peoria 85345 - $126.58 versus the peak of $156.04 (19% below)
15. Surprise 85374 - $137.52 versus the peak of $168.66 (18% below)
16. Sun City West 85375 - $134.07 versus the peak of $154.94 (13% below)
17. Peoria 85383 - $147.54 versus the peak of $187.56 (21% below)

The strongest recovery has been in Scottsdale 85251 where the average $/SF is now 8% higher than during the bubble.

More generally, locations close to the intersection of the 101 and 202 in Tempe have recovered better than average, as well as several areas north and east of Central Phoenix.