Tuesday, November 26, 2024

The Continued Slow Down...

 Nov 23 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities

cmi-2024-11-21.gif
Like last week, we have 6 large cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month. The average change in CMI over the past month is -4.2% while last week we saw -4.8%. The market is still deteriorating for sellers but less quickly than last week.

Fountain Hills is by far the worst performer losing 28% over the most recent month and conceding first place to Chandler, which along with Cave Creek is the best performer.

Peoria has turned around and is now deteriorating while *Paradise Valley has bounced back. 

Buckeye, Surprise, Maricopa, Scottsdale and Mesa deteriorated by 7% or more..

Once again we have 7 cities that are seller's markets, though 5 of these are very weak seller's markets at less than 117. 5 cities are balanced and 5 are buyer's markets.

Monday, November 4, 2024

Decreased Demand Is Only Half the Problem

If you’re looking to buy or sell a home, it’s crucial to understand the current real estate market dynamics. Over the past eight months, many sellers are experiencing difficulties that can be largely attributed to changes in supply and demand.

Increasing Inventory

One of the primary reasons for the market's shift is the significant increase in the number of homes available for sale. In February, there were about 15,574 active listings. Today, that number has surged to 21,368, marking a 37% increase. This rise in inventory means that buyers now have a wider selection of homes to choose from. Consequently, sellers find themselves competing against more listings, which can lead to price reductions as they attempt to attract potential buyers.

Additionally, new construction homes are also contributing to the supply. While they are not fully reflected in the current number of active listings, new homes are increasingly gaining traction, attracting a notable share of buyers this year.

Builders are offering crazy incentives to reduce interest rates and that's not counting as a buyer would you rather buy a used house with dated AC, roof, windows etc. Or buy a brand new house with warranty's, lower interest rates, and newer technology?

Contract Ratio Insights

A valuable tool for understanding market conditions is the Contract Ratio, which indicates the relationship between the number of homes under contract and the number of active listings. In early February, the Contract Ratio was 47.7, suggesting a balanced market. Today, it has dropped to 32.46, signaling a shift toward a buyer's market.

This decline means that competition among sellers is stiffer, and buyers have the upper hand. The last time the ratio was this low was during a period when home prices were being driven downward due to excess inventory from iBuyers. Currently, the reason for the surplus of homes for sale stems from more sellers entering the market than there are buyers looking to purchase.

Price Adjustments Ahead

As more homes linger unsold and the inventory builds up, sellers may feel pressured to lower their prices to entice buyers. This situation indicates a potential for greater downward pressure on home prices as the market adjusts to the increased competition among sellers.

What’s Next?

While the current trends suggest a challenging environment for sellers, it doesn’t mean the situation is static. Several factors could influence the market, such as a significant decrease in mortgage rates, which could stimulate buyer interest. Typically, the real estate market sees a seasonal reduction in active listings as the holiday season approaches, with many sellers opting to take their homes off the market during this time.

Historically, a reduction in active listings during November has signaled shifts in market conditions, but whether we’ll see drastic changes in 2024 remains to be seen.

Stay Informed

For homeowners and prospective buyers, monitoring the active listing counts and Contract Ratio over the next few weeks can provide essential insights into market trends. By staying informed, you can make better decisions whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply understanding the landscape of your local real estate market.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Listing Success Rate - Much More Accurate Than Average Days On Market


Listing Success Rate is one of the most revealing and reliable housing market indicators but is rarely measured other than by the Cromford® Report. In contrast average days on market is comparatively dull and meaningless yet measured and reported almost everywhere. We recommend ignoring average days on market. It might be interesting for a specific single listing, but the statistical average reveals little useful information about the state of the market.

Our month-to-date listing success rate is 71% which is nothing special, but at least it is above the long-term average of 68%. But It is also below last year at this time when we measured 75%. This tells us that the market is close to normal and not improving much. However we may not feel like it as close to normal, because between 2011 and 2022 the market stayed above normal for almost the entire period. Normal feels much worse than 2011-2022. Also we have not had much experience of normal in the last 24 years. It has mostly been better or worse than normal.

Those who were active between 2006 and 2011 will realize how much worse it was back then, when the listing success rate stayed below 61% and often fell below 40%. Far more listings failed than succeeded for a full 5 year period.

We can also see how unusually strong the market was from 2020 to 2022 when the listing success rate exceeded 90% for long periods.

Studying the data reveals that listing success is generally much higher than average for the lower end of the market and much lower for the higher end. Right now the success rate for listings of $2 million and above is 50.6% while that for those priced between $250,000 and $400,00 is around 79%. However properties priced extremely cheaply, under $200,000, have a low success rate because there is usually some serious disadvantages causing them to be priced so far below the median home price. Today we measure a 56% success rate for these.

Be careful of paying too much attention to listing success rate when you are looking at a small sample size, such as a single ZIP code or small city. These numbers fluctuate wildly and provide little useful information. The same caution applies to a any small area such as a subdivision. You need a decent amount of data to apply statistical principles.

Over the past 90 days we can rank the large cities as follows:

  1. Buckeye 79.5%
  2. Peoria 77.9%
  3. Chandler 77.7%
  4. Queen Creek 77.1%
  5. Gilbert 75.9%
  6. Avondale 75.9%
  7. Glendale 73.7%
  8. Maricopa 74.5%
  9. Surprise 72.3%
  10. Mesa 72.6%
  11. Fountain Hills 72.2%
  12. Tempe 71.9%
  13. Goodyear 71.2%
  14. Phoenix 71.1%
  15. Scottsdale 65.7%
  16. Cave Creek 60.8%
  17. Paradise Valley 39.3%

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Market Slows Declines and Balances - Interest Rates May Continue This Trend

 A 'balanced market' is when supply (inventory) and demand (sales) are in relative balance.

It's actually quite rare, as shown in chart below:
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So here's the current snapshot in more detail:
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BUT, hold the phone...
We can 'see' it by city (if you can sort the colors) - but the merits of the chart below is in the trend line and how parsing by city, just on the face of it, suggests that, while the trend is roughly the same, there are significant differences in city markets that will impact buyer and seller decision-making:
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You can see it more clearly in the Friday CMI updates, where I've annotated the demarcation between sellers, balanced and buyers markets:
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Takeaways 
  • While we could say it's a 'balanced market', once again that broad brush is inadequate to the task of accurately reflecting market conditions and thereby the implications for buyers and sellers.
  • Client conversations can be enhanced in being informed by the CMI 'context' .

Friday, July 26, 2024

Continued Declines : (

 Jul 26 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities ~

cmi-2024-07-25.gif

At first sight this looks bad. We have only 2 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, half as many as last week. Avondale and Queen Creek have reversed course leaving Scottsdale and Maricopa alone. 15 have declined, so the vast majority have deteriorated for sellers. However most of these only fell by a small percentage. Former high-fliers Tempe, Gilbert and Chandler show the biggest falls.

After a second look, things look a lot better. The average change in CMI over the past month is -5.4%, a smaller fall than the -6.7% we saw last week. The rate of decline has definitely changed direction and this is a positive sign for the market. Things are deteriorating more slowly.

9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110, though that looks unlikely to last much longer for Tempe and Gilbert. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets. 3 cities still remain over 140.

One of the largest markets by dollar volume (Scottsdale) has improved by 6% over the last month. Given that we are in the middle of the slowest season for luxury homes, this is another encouraging sign for that market.

_____________________

Interesting week, right. 'Multiple' new forms to incorporate (pun intended). Lots of uncertainty. All of us looking for the silver bullet talk tracks that will give us confidence moving forward. We speculate on winning strategies. You see the evidence that your leadership is distilling the best information available for education and re-education with all hands on deck to facilitate managing these changes. 

There is the controversial term from the Chinese that Crisis is a dangerous opportunity. Seems fitting.

I believe Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty is positioning itself as the shining light on the hill.

My personal opinion: 

To the extent we can articulate to our sellers the efficacy of offering co-broke, we sustain relative normalcy and the 'sand in the gears' will clearly be most easily mitigated. With decades of historical precedent, I believe it remains the best opportunity for successful outcomes for our clients. I believe the key is being able to articulate why it has worked so well for all parties. More on that to come.

Conversely, the thought of our buyers having to come to the closing table with cash to compensate us for our work on their behalf is the choke point of resistance. We're trying to be like the duck that looks so serene moving across the water, but paddling like crazy below the surface to find safe harbor. Let's be honest, this is a tough nut to crack. 

We don't have a crystal ball. All we can do is speculate on how this is going to play out and plan accordingly.

It will be an evolution. 

It will likely 'cull the herd'...with less competition from those that don't adapt and fall by the wayside being in part, the opportunity.

Adapt and prosper: 

As we traverse these uncharted waters the starting place for successfully adapting is the 'talk track' within us.

This video helped me today. I trust it will you as well:

'Our words are a tool for the mind to create a reality.' Dr. Joe Dispenza

Friday, June 28, 2024

Market Update 6.28.2024

 Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities ~

cmi-2024-06-27.gif

The average change in CMI over the past month is -6.1%, a steeper fall than the -5.0% we saw last week . This is increasing the downward trend that started 6 weeks ago. As sellers compete with each other, price reductions are still increasing in both size and frequency.

This week we only have 3 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 14 have declined.

Avondale is the biggest mover in favor of sellers. We have a much longer list of cities that moved substantially in favor of buyers: Paradise Valley, Gilbert, Goodyear, Peoria and Fountain Hills.

9 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets over 110. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 6 are buyer's markets.

____________________

All those red dots with the arrow pointing down indicated the month over month CMI trend is down, with the red signifying the trend favors buyers.

The reason you can still have a 'sellers market' in spite of the red down arrow is the CMI score. 

To the degree the CMI is over 110 it indicates the relative supply (inventory / sellers) vs. demand (buyers) favors sellers.

This current trend is born of my oft repeated 'mantra for the year-to-date' ~ generally speaking: 

Inventories (Active Listing Counts) are increasing disproportionate to buyer demand (Sales or Listings Under Contract).

This point is worth repeating as the trend of increasing inventory relative to demand is something we haven't seen for maybe a decade - longer than many have been in this practice.

In the long term CMI chart below you can 'see' the last time we approached a balanced market was 10 years ago. 

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Yes, there's the dramatic dip in supply in 2022, when would-be sellers stayed out of the market to preserve their low mortgage rate - this offset the simultaneous downtrend in demand at that time, for the same reason - the unprecedented 4% rapid rise in mortgage rates from 3% - 7%.

What's happening today that differentiates from 2022 is listings are accruing, even while demand is on the wane. 

To the extent mortgage rates improve for buyers this dynamic could shift quickly. 

That said, the luxury sector has enjoyed an incredible 'ride' these past few years. 
With over half the transactions being cash, luxury has been more resilient. 

The recent softening in the luxury sector is noteworthy, albeit the number of transactions is still ahead of last year and there is the seasonal component self-evident here:

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All of the above explains: 

  • why your sellers may complain of lack of showings
  • why average days on market are increasing
  • why price reductions are on the rise
  • why the historically lagging indicator, average prices, will moderate if this trend isn't reversed

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Demand volume matches 2007 : (

 Cromford Daily Observation ~ The number of listings under contract (8,238) at week 23 is the lowest we have recorded for that time of the year since 2007.

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At no point so far in 2024 has the count managed to claw its way above the miserable totals for 2023.

Now 2007 was an awful year with the market stalled by the certain knowledge that house prices were about to collapse. We are not in that situation in 2024, but buyer enthusiasm for resale homes is still very low indeed. To put 8,238 into perspective, the total for week 23 of 2011 was well over 21,000.

If the 30-year fixed mortgage rate finally tumbles well below 7% then things are likely to improve. 

I recommend watching the turquoise line above to see if it can creep above the purple line over the next couple of months.

______________________

That 'recommendation' above to track Listings Under Contract, is one I would underscore.

Listings Under Contract are our best 'finger-on-the-pulse' for measuring the demand trend - and that would be because Sales per se, actually were put under contract a month or two earlier. 

The bifurcation is self-evident when we filter by price. 
For example, here's what that same year-over-year Listings Under Contract looks like over $1M ~

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This is why you want to filter by price. The trendline above is flipped from the trendline below - Listings Under Contract below $1M ~

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Below shows the trend sans the upper end (up to $1M) ~

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A single graphic illustration of bifurcation over the last 8 years can be shown in the graph below, where you can 'see' the current increasing strength of the higher end relative to low-mid range. This chart also evidences the dramatic increase in prices, which, of course, goes a long way toward explaining the softer current low-mid range market, especially when appreciation is compounded by the increase in mortgage rates ~

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Friday, June 14, 2024

The Fall Continues

 Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities ~

cmi-2024-06-13.gif

The average change in CMI over the past month is -3.4%, a steeper fall than the -2.1% we saw last week . This is continuing the downward trend that started 4 weeks ago. Price reductions are again increasing in both size and frequency.

In contrast to last week, we only have 4 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 13 have declined.

Cave Creek is the biggest mover in favor of sellers but it is only up 8% over last month. Glendale, Peoria, Mesa, Phoenix and Gilbert are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers, with Gilbert's market deteriorating the fastest..

Despite the continuing deterioration, 11 out of 17 cities remain seller's markets. We have 2 cities (Goodyear and Cave Creek) that are balanced, while the remaining 4 are buyer's markets.

______________________

'Price reductions are again increasing in both size and frequency'. That's the takeaway from today's updated CMI (Cromford Market Index) - for those new to my 'News...', the CMI is a proven short term predictor of the market.

My 'drum beat' year-to-date has been that you could sum up market conditions broadly by saying it's a good market, but the trend is new listings increasing disproportionate to listings under contract (sales). Further, that even though prices are a lagging indicator, the above referenced increase in frequency and size of price reductions will invariably affect the overall average price trend.

Here's the graphical evidence of those price cuts - they've doubled per week year-to-date in the broader market; up 37% per week in the luxury sector ($1M plus) - Note: one factor the affects luxury is the typical seasonal decline in luxury inventory:

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Takeaway ~
  • The consequence of listings increasing disproportionate to sales is upon us.
  • Your remedy ~ competitive positioning to cut the marketing time by 2/3rds and net the highest price achievable (we have the metrics to prove this.

Friday, June 7, 2024

Market Update...June 24'

 Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities ~

cmi-2024-06-06.gif

The average change in CMI over the past month is -2.1%, down from -0.8% last week and continuing the downward trend that started 3 weeks ago. The market is deteriorating a little faster now for sellers. Price reductions are increasing in both size and frequency.

On a brighter note, we now have 7 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 10 have declined.

Fountain Hills is easily the biggest movers in favor of sellers. Glendale and Gilbert are once again the primary locations moving in favor of buyers.

Despite the continuing deterioration, 11 out of 17 cities are still seller's markets. We have 3 cities (Goodyear, Cave Creek and Surprise) that are balanced, while the remaining 3 are buyer's markets.

Buckeye and Maricopa swapped places at the bottom of the table. Both have a large inventory of for-sale homes which gives buyers an advantage in negotiations.

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Market Update 5/2024

 The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.

The new report covers home sales during the period January to March 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid February, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.

A big turn-around has taken place in the last 2 months. We have all 20 cities showing rising prices for last month. The Pacific coast had another remarkably strong month.

Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:

  1. Seattle +2.70%
  2. San Francisco +2.59%
  3. Cleveland +2.40%
  4. San Diego +2.23%
  5. Boston +1.88%
  6. Los Angeles +1.70%
  7. Chicago +1.66%
  8. New York +1.50%
  9. Portland +1.47%
  10. Minneapolis +1.34%
  11. Denver +1.33%
  12. Washington +1.27%
  13. Dallas +1.19%
  14. Atlanta +1.15%
  15. Detroit +1.14%
  16. Miami +0.96%
  17. Charlotte +0.96%
  18. Las Vegas +0.92%
  19. Phoenix +0.53%
  20. Tampa +0.50%

Phoenix has fallen from 14th to 19th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was 1.29%, so Phoenix under-performed significantly against that benchmark.

Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:

  1. San Diego +11.1%
  2. New York +9.2%
  3. Cleveland +8.8%
  4. Los Angeles +8.8%
  5. Boston +8.7%
  6. Chicago +8.7%
  7. Miami +8.2%
  8. Seattle +7.8%
  9. Detroit +7.7%
  10. Las Vegas +7.7%
  11. Charlotte +7.5%
  12. Washington +7.0%
  13. Atlanta +6.1%
  14. Phoenix +4.9%
  15. San Francisco +4.9%
  16. Tampa +3.8%
  17. Dallas +3.6%
  18. Minneapolis +3.3%
  19. Portland +2.2%
  20. Denver +2.1%

Phoenix stayed at 14th place, and is therefore still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. 

All 20 of the cities are again showing positive price movement from one year ago with Denver and Portland at the bottom. Southern California and the North are in the lead.

The national average is +6.5% year over year. Phoenix is below that percentage, and in a similar situation to last month.

Cromford Daily Observation ~ 

The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been varying between 7% and 7.25% since May 6, which is better for buyers than the 7.25% to 7.5% range that we saw between April 11 and May 6.

Despite the better rates, demand has stayed weak and even weakened a little further. The number of listings under contract across all types and areas within the ARMLS database is 8,779. This is down 7% from the 9,441 we saw on April 27. It is also down almost 10% from this time last year.

As we approach the hottest months of the year, when demand tends to fall anyway, this weakness is not encouraging. 

Supply continues to rise, although slowly and the current trends are suggesting continued deterioration for sellers. It would not be a surprise if demand were to fall enough to match the supply of active listings over the next several weeks.

____________________

I can offer a more positive assessment with a simple bifurcation of the market over vs. under $800K:

Up to $800K Listings Under Contract - our best barometer of sales - activity is off 12.5% Year-over-Year ~

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$800K plus Listings Under Contract are up 2.2% Year-over-Year ~

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Further, as you go up in price range there is a year-over-year increase in demand.
In fact, the $1.5 plus market is up 11% year-over-year ~

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In sum, there's an inverse relationship between price and demand - as you go up in price range, demand increases.

Takeaways ~
  • That last line is a good market summation - 'as you go up in price range, demand increases'.
  • This bifurcation has been with us for some time as the rise in interest rates have impacted affordability.
  • Since inventory is increasing, this spells opportunity for those who can manage the rates e.g. knowing they can always refinance if rates moderate (in an election year).
  • And for the more resilient luxury sector, well, money continues to move to Arizona!

Monday, May 27, 2024

AZ Real Estate Market Update - Holding On!!

 Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities ~

cmi-2024-05-23.gif

The average change in CMI over the past month is +0.1%, down from +0.8 last week and continuing the downward trend that started last week.

We have only 5 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 12 have declined. This is also less positive than last week.

Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills and Goodyear are the biggest movers in favor of sellers. Tempe, Glendale, Gilbert and Maricopa are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers.

Now that Chandler is losing steam, Fountain Hills has a chance to replace it at the top of the table.

11 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 2 cities (Goodyear and Surprise) that are balanced, while 4 are buyer's markets.

Thursday, May 16, 2024

AZ Market Actually Balanced In Total BUT.......location matters.

 The Cromford® Market Index for all areas and types has declined a little further over the last week and dropped below the 110 mark, meaning we officially classify the market as balanced.

The decline has been very slow so there is no likelihood of anyone feeling the difference from one week to the next. However supply keeps creeping higher and demand remains very weak.

There is also a big difference between areas like Chandler and Gilbert which remain under firm control by sellers and areas like Maricopa and Buckeye where buyers have a strong advantage due to the plentiful supply, which includes a large number of newly built homes.

___________________

The 'official' classification of a balanced market (Cromford Market Index +/- 100) is the product of your primary year-to-date taking point:

 'YTD we're experiencing a steady and largely disproportionate increase in inventory relative to demand.' 

Presently general demand is off 10% (without parsing price range).

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Here is the CMI graph so you can see the aforementioned trend ~

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Bifurcation ~

Looking at the market below $1M we have Demand off 11% year-over-year...

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.Demand in the $1M plus market is up just over 7%

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So, while bifurcation continues it's less pronounced in the luxury sector because 'money is moving to the valley' together with an inherently more resilient higher end sector e.g. 53% of transactions over $1.5M are cash.

Takeaways ~

Beyond the basic one line summary characterizing the market - 
  • 'The broad increase in inventory relative to demand is giving us a relatively balanced market (supply vs. demand).'
As usual, price point and location matter mightily.
  • The above graphs show the 18% spread between the down 11% market under $1M vs. the plus 7 market over $1M

Mastery is the art of creating distinctions,

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Interesting to see AZ in the affordability index rankings....

 The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published this Tuesday.

The new report covers home sales during the period November 2023 to January 2024. This means the typical home sale closed in mid December, more than 3 months ago. Please remember that Case-Shiller data is fairly old, even on the day it is released.

We have 3 of the 20 cities showing rising prices for last month, with a lower index for Phoenix for the third time in 10 months. 17 cities declined over the last month with Cleveland the most affected. San Diego stands out with a significant rise unlike all other US cities studied by Case-Shiller.

Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:

  1. San Diego +1.8%
  2. Washington +0.5%
  3. Los Angeles +0.1%
  4. Dallas -0.0%
  5. Miami -0.1%
  6. Atlanta -0.1%
  7. San Francisco -0.1%
  8. Charlotte -0.1%
  9. Las Vegas -0.1%
  10. Tampa -0.2%
  11. Portland -0.2%
  12. Dallas -0.2%
  13. New York -0.3%
  14. Denver -0.5%
  15. Chicago -0.5%
  16. Phoenix -0.5%
  17. Boston -0.5%
  18. Minneapolis -0.6%
  19. Detroit -0.7%
  20. Cleveland -0.9%

Phoenix has dropped from 12th to 16th place since last month. The national average increase month to month was -0.1%, so Phoenix fell well below that standard.

Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:

  1. San Diego +11.2%
  2. Los Angeles +8.6%
  3. Detroit +8.2%
  4. Charlotte +8.1%
  5. Chicago +8.0%
  6. New York +7.6%
  7. Miami +7.5%
  8. Boston +7.0%
  9. Cleveland +5.9%
  10. Atlanta +6.4%
  11. Washington +6.3%
  12. Las Vegas +5.6%
  13. Tampa +4.6%
  14. Phoenix +4.6%
  15. San Francisco +4.5%
  16. Seattle +4.4%
  17. Minneapolis +3.1%
  18. Dallas +2.9%
  19. Denver +2.7%
  20. Portland +0.9%

Phoenix remained in14th place once again, and is still in the bottom half on a year over year basis. All 20 of the cities are now showing positive price movement from one year ago with Portland once again doing relatively poorly. Southern California is now showing the highest annual appreciation, closely followed by Detroit, Charlotte and Chicago.

The national average is +6.0% year over year. Phoenix is therefore below that percentage once more, in contrast to last month.

__________________

The brains behind our top tier Collateral Analytics 5-year Forecasting tool, who has said the top weighted factor in projecting future appreciation in their 'bank grade' algorithm is affordability.

So, through that lens the latest Case-Shiller® data showing Phoenix a bit below average in current appreciation (albeit 3-month old data) is not a negative - particularly in an era of higher interest rates. 

Taking a closer look at affordability statewide I found this interesting graph, where we see Arizona 2nd only to Michigan in 'The Most Affordable...for Home Buyers and frankly we'll take Arizona over Michigan, right:)

Note the 'key metrics', as they include home additional affordability factors beyond just Av $/Sq Ft.

Most-Affordable-US-Cities-home-buyers-2023.jpg